Simple math

Let's add up this weeks events:


Innovator's Dilemma guy ( the book that apparently is gospel within Microsoft) offers MS Linux advice

http://news.com.com/Advice+to+Microsoft+Learn+to+love+Linux/2100-7344_3-5411843.html?tag=nefd.top

+

Steve Job's on innovation:
 
A: "And who usually ends up running the show? The sales guy. John Akers at IBM is the consummate example. Then one day, the monopoly expires for whatever reason. But by then the best product people have left, or they're no longer listened to. And so the company goes through this tumultuous time, and it either survives or it doesn't.

Q: Is this common in the industry?
A: Look at Microsoft -- who's running Microsoft?

Q: Steve Ballmer.
A: Right, the sales guy. Case closed. And that's what happened at Apple, as well.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2004/nf20041012_4018_db083.htm

+

Google integrates windows desktop into it's site
http://news.com.com/Google+unveils+desktop+search/2100-1024_3-5408765.html?tag=nefd.top


X


Trustworthy computing still not here
http://security.itworld.com/4366/041013trustworthiness/page_1.html


+


Paris to join Munich in OSS switchover
http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/37281.html

=

Microsoft is more concerned about being the railway tracks for big media, Telco and Cable - than it is about operating systems in general.

Gates has a plan: Compu-tainment
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/money/20041013/gatesqa13.art.htm


The strategy appears to be - Who cares about linux or innovation - when we can win by default if we bring the content in to all devices - in a protected format - that will work anywhere - so long as it's Windows.



Linux will be locked out - or litigated out of "trusted" machine status - as not only media and music companies - but also ISPs and cable operators look to MS for their new growth verticals


So ... is MS way way ahead of everyone else ( ie; Jobs closed format Fairplay=doom) and Linux ( unruly nature=illegal) and Europes ( cant win on politics anyway=concentrate on NA) and Christensen's "advice"= completely backward - and that MS is doing EXACTLY what it needs to do to sustain it's long term survival?

or - perhaps -
has MS just decided that in order to win - it needs to change the playing field or "The Stack" to survive any further attempts at cirrcumventing it's patented & DRM protected new universe?


Is there a chance they could be as extremely wrong as they think they are extremely right?

I thought it was about "losely coupled" myself
although if I had a steadily declining 90% share - id probably do the same thing while i still could.. 

regardless of any mathmatical outcome the numbers and risks are definately HIGH

There might be a small flaw in you logic, as linux is doing very well in the embedded market, so what does this mean for microsofts media center strategy?

I suppose it boils down to weither or not companies are prepared to pay to swap devolpment of linux devices to ms ones to allow consumers to link up to their media center?

i watched the MSMC2005 launch video last night (Queen Latifah: "I got a free copy of MESSAGE center" - - Bill winces)

It sort of shows what I was refering too - as in - the whole show was about see all these players? and see all these music stores? and here's how we connect them all together.  So it wasnt so much about software - as plumbing and "consumer choice"

This was pretty cool actually - they definately went out of their way to show:

itunes = one store
MC = many stores
itunes= one device
MC=many devices
itunes= buy songs/albums
MC= buy songs/albums + subscriptions

it showed the movie finder (cool) but didnt have the Extender ( used an HP thingy)

anyway it was a whole show where windows seemed to have had a cameo - and the "killer app" was simply the interoperability between all devices.

So we see the strategy pretty clear - railway tracks
+ Plays for sure logo (intel inside)

Assuming macs and linux cannot receive play for sure logos, and that DRM in lognhorn is coming - they are setting up the beachhead - and changing the way the game is played.

It should work out - if they get all dvds and cds to use winmedia 10 formats ( like dvds all have which they didnt even show at the launch)

jamie wrote:

It should work out - if they get all dvds and cds to use winmedia 10 formats ( like dvds all have which they didnt even show at the launch)

I'd actually prefer a WMA based DVD format, at least to the existing ones. I hate having to pay $40 per machine for crappy, single-threaded player software just to legally watch the DVDs I own. There's at least VideoLAN, but that's of questionable legality and isn't nearly as polished as WMP or PowerDVD.

Theora or something would be nicer, but I'm not living in a fantasy world

For CDs, eh. The current format works pretty well. It's not like they're going to put MORE than 70 minutes of music on a CD. As it is, a lot of music CDs aren't even full when you buy them.

I don't buy CDs very often anymore, though, so it's not a big deal. AllOfMP3 and similar services make it pretty easy to buy music in the format I want without hassle.

the article's premise seems wrong.  i can't find many linux PDAs.  i have an agenda vr3 and my roomate is getting a yopy y3500.  both are no longer in production.  also the linuxDA Powerplay VS exists, not sure if it is still made though.

beyond that you have the sharp zaurus.

Jamie,

Don't you then find it ironic that Wozniak thinks that Jobs was the sales guy at Apple? Have you listened to Woz's speech at Gnomedex?

http://www.itconversations.com

the only parts i find "correct" about all linked news of this week is job's saying sales guys shouldnt be running companies - product guys should - and that there is a HUGE gap in the trust part of trustworthy computing

apart from that - the railway strategy is a strong one - if only the train were ON TIME




edit: train on time =
google: blogger/picasa/hello/fluffybunny/gmail/etc
ms:  ? / ? / mesenger / ? / hotmail sort of

steve was the sales guy - that is for sure.  woz was more paul allen - although he didnt conquer consumer space flight AND computers last time I checked

steve always did have a hippie / rollingstone / vegan / minimalistic / slick thing about him though - and he made sure the products he sold - got that

even in the early days

both bill and steve are the same in many ways

steve owns a company that makes moving pictures
and bill owns one, that owns still ones