I agree with your assessment Jamie, but the down arrow should still be closer to the back/forward buttons, otherwise users could mistakingly relate it to the address bar.
Loading User Information from Channel 9
Something went wrong getting user information from Channel 9
Loading User Information from MSDN
Something went wrong getting user information from MSDN
Loading Visual Studio Achievements
Something went wrong getting the Visual Studio Achievements
I agree with your assessment Jamie, but the down arrow should still be closer to the back/forward buttons, otherwise users could mistakingly relate it to the address bar.