Scoble is dead right.

Let's throw out some similarities here:

Microsoft:
$280 billion market cap
Has been declared a monopoly.
Beginning to push out patents like IBM (they hired IBM's guy).
Software company.
"No one has been fired for buying Microsoft".
No one wants to be trapped in a room with Bill Gates (he's called the Fox for a reason).
Accused of being out of touch with customers (BOB, Clippy, Windows ME, Longhorn...).


IBM:
$180 billion market cap
Has been declared a monopoly.
Pushes out patents like no other company.
Software/hardware company. 
"No one has been fired for buying IBM".
No one wants to fight the MiB (IBM's {patent} lawyers (ask SUN)).
Accused of being out of touch with customers (Mainframes are out, clustering is in).

What (almost) everyone wants is a return to 1999-2000. They want MS to be the company that laid the smack down on the DoJ, not the company that barely got smacked. They want killer apps, new innovations, that flighty feeling where everything is possible.

MS used to be the darling of Wall Street: always beat the expectations, good corporate image. The recession happened, and although MS is still alive, their image is shattered: they are an EvIl monopoly.

Guess who's taking MS's old spot? Google. The commotion surrounding that company is like when MS changed from the NasDaq to the Dow Jones. So, until they are declared a monopoly or kill a baby in front of its mother, they are the new "in". And they're holding up pretty well, going after WinFS.

For the record, though I like MS, Longhorn has got to be a bad joke. Take away all the PR people, ask them to throw out some *real* scenarios, and you find it's actually quite useless. Avalon? Cute. Lower CPU usage, more eye-candy. Indigo? Yeah, if you're a developer. Most networks work fine now. WinFS (BG's grand vision)? Useful only if you have a criminal tendency to misplace files. The extra data is useful, but very exaggerated.

-Ryan