The iPhone 4S/5 Anticipation Station

In 18 hours' time, bloggers and other illegitimate journalists will be scrambling into Cupertino for the latest wankbank over shiny devices.

To date, there has been no hard evidence over any purported "iPhone 5" - pretty much everything that's been leaked or surreptitiously photographed to date is of the "iPhone 4S" - which will be to the iPhone 4 what the iPhone 3GS was to the iPhone 3G (which was actually the second iPhone model to be released).

There have been recent reports that the iPhone 5 has a 4" screen size and has a "teardrop" cross-section design, but they hold limited veracity. That said, it does make sense for "iPhone 4 + 1" to match the aesthetic of the iPad 2, which doesn't match the design currently on the iPhone 4, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple ditch the external antennae used, so it's a toss up.

What I don't like about the "iPhone 4S" concept is that the name doesn't make sense. The iPhone 3GS was so-called because calling it the "iPhone 3" would cause confusion when compared to the "iPhone 3G" (which was the second iPhone to be released), but there's no sense in calling the fifth iPhone the "4S". Apple is known for being (relatively) straightforward in their product nomenclature and I'm sure none of us want a return to the old Performa/LC days of the mid-1990s.

And as I'm writing this, there's talk of the iPhone 3GS being kept along as a new sub-offering to be given away for free, with the iPhone 4 as the new 'cheap' offering, and the iPhone 4S as the flagship model.

Here's what I see happening tomorrow:

• "iPhone 5" rumours proven wrong: there will be no such model
• The iPhone 4S will be unveiled: it will resemble the iPhone 4 CDMA edition but feature dual-mode hardware that means it can connect to both CDMA and GSM networks. It will be available in 32, and 64GB capacities.
• The iPhone 4 will be the new budget offering with 8 and 16GB capacity.
• iPhone 3GS discontinued, but carriers will probably keep the iPhone 3GS around as an even cheaper offering, much to Apple's chagrin (Apple is now in Microsoft's shoes in that it is not only competing with market rivals, but also with itself: older products are "good enough" for 90% of punters' needs).

What follows below is a possible alternative scenario:

• iPhone 5 is real, has a new design that resembles the design of the iPad 2 (metallic back with tapered sides), the same thickness as the iPad 2, too. The cross-section might not necessarily be teardrop, but it will be sloping in some way, similar to the iPhone 3G/3GS. It will be available in 16, 32, and 64GB capacity.
• The iPhone 4S is the new budget offering, only available in an 8GB capacity.
• iPhone 4 and 3GS discontinued

As for tech specs, I'm willing to bet whatever the new iPhone is (5 or 4S) it will have the Apple A5 SoC and other specifications (RAM, etc) as the iPad 2 - in fact the iPad 2 and iPhone 4S/5 will be pretty much identical except for the size of the screen - by using more common parts it reduces costs.

I'm also sure a model will have a 64GB capacity: everyone expected it on the iPhone 4 (as each subsequent release until then had doubled the capacity: 8GB in the original, 16GB in the 3G, 32GB in the 3GS) - for many people 64GB is the "magic" amount of capacity that ensures their entire music collection can be stored locally (I'm unfortunate in that my MP3s total over 80GB, oh well). I note that flash storage capacity has not effectively doubled every 18 months as expected: otherwise we'd see a 128GB offering in the iPhone this year, but even today 128GB drives for desktops are prohibitively expensive (and with questionable reliability too). I don't think we'll see a 128GB iPhone for at least another two years from now.

Other speculation I'm going to bet on:

• Apple discontinuing the iPod Classic - dedicated MP3 players that do nothing else went out of fashion as smartphones-for-the-masses became popularised around 2008. I see a 128GB iPod Touch being introduced to replace it.
• I also expect the iPod Shuffle to be killed off too: the screenless unit was an interesting technology sideshow, and the UX concept does work for small numbers of songs which made sense when its original capacity was only 512MB. Now it has the same form-factor as the iPod Nano, except with smaller capacities and no screen. I expect the Nano's price will be reduced to make up for this.
• There is speculation Apple might add 3G support to the iPod Touch, effectively turning it into an "iPad Nano" - whilst plausible, I don't see it happening: it would come at the expense of the unit's thin-as-it-is form-factor and battery life - and if you want 3G support why not just get an iPhone? There's also the problems relating to carrier deals and even chipset and antennae support. I don't see it happening.

As for Mr. Jobs: I'm sad to hear he's not doing too well - I do not expect him to make any kind of official appearance, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him trying to be incognito in the audience. I don't think Tim Cook will have the same reality-distortion-field around him that Steve has, though it's all in the content of the presentation package and how you deliver it - I've never really sat through any of his presentations, but I hope he can orate well.

If it has 64GB (or more) and still fits my Pro Clip car dock and other accessories I'll be very interested.

Did you just predict there will be an iPhone5 or there won't be one?

Anyways, the hardware isn't interesting to me... it's the software, stupid

1 minute ago, Minh wrote

Did you just predict there will be an iPhone5 or there won't be one?

Anyways, the hardware isn't interesting to me... it's the software, stupid

I'm saying there's two plausible scenarios (one where only the iPhone 4S is released, which is the most likely, and one where the iPhone 5 and 4S are released simultaneously (unlikely)).

It doesn't matter what it is, my brother will get it because his iPhone3G is freezing a lot.

@W3bbo: if they don't want to obsolete the iPhone 4 just yet, they may go with the less scary "4S", but at that point I would expect the device to be very similar to the iPhone 4 (except maybe a metal back cover, and other minor touches); at least similar enough that most accessories still work.

Taking a more cynical approach, if they show a new device and there isn't Steve Jobs on the stage, the media buzz will be all about his absence, not the device. Way to waste the thunder...

Nah, they're going to release an iPhone Nano. It won't have a screen and will only call people at random. Every Apple fanboi will want one.

1 hour ago, Blue Ink wrote

*snip*

Taking a more cynical approach, if they show a new device and there isn't Steve Jobs on the stage, the media buzz will be all about his absence, not the device. Way to waste the thunder...

Prediction: They'll do something ridiculously corny like having Steve Jobs appear using FaceTime.

FaceTime is a mystery: it's a great product that "just works" so long as the other person is using an appropriate device and the quality is better than Skype. So why hasn't Apple published the specs yet as they said they would? FaceTime is turning into the new iChatAV.

7 hours ago, W3bbo wrote

*snip*

I'm saying there's two plausible scenarios (one where only the iPhone 4S is released, which is the most likely, and one where the iPhone 5 and 4S are released simultaneously (unlikely)).

On the fence, then.

There's a lot of speculation that they may show off some new voice control interface (the original press call invites were entitled, 'Let's Talk iPhone').  I think that's going to be the big deal, along with an iOS5/iCloud demo.

Dropping the iPod Classic? Yes. Apple hates hard drives.

Dropping the Shuffle? No. They don't have anything else at that price point to replace it, and folk love it because you can use it without having to look at it. Can't do that with a Nano.

Upping the Touch to 128GB? Yes, to replace the iPod Classic

Budget iPhone? Yes, to keep the Android hordes at bay.

I'm going to say 'yes' to an iPhone 5. New processor, voice control, larger screen. Nothing to really get excited about, but people will get excited about it nonetheless. As someone has already said, the trick will be iOS and the iClould integration.

In the scheme of things, none of this is important. The pundits will be watching Cook's performance, to see if Apple is more than a one-man show.

Oh, and they'll announce Facebook for the iPad2

5 hours ago, AndyC wrote

Nah, they're going to release an iPhone Nano. It won't have a screen and will only call people at random. Every Apple fanboi will want one.

I wouldn't put anything past them.

5 hours ago, Blue Ink wrote

@W3bbo: if they don't want to obsolete the iPhone 4 just yet, they may go with the less scary "4S", but at that point I would expect the device to be very similar to the iPhone 4 (except maybe a metal back cover, and other minor touches); at least similar enough that most accessories still work.

Taking a more cynical approach, if they show a new device and there isn't Steve Jobs on the stage, the media buzz will be all about his absence, not the device. Way to waste the thunder...

Well it was always going to happen so it's best Cook cuts his teeth on a smaller gathering and an interim product release.

Whatever it is can't be this good.

@Ray7: hehe, it always makes me chuckle when you see speech recognition folks opinion's of how we'll all be using computers just by talking to them, apparently it's always just around the corner. Yet when you look at the reality of things, people really only tend to use it as an assistive technology or in the few occasions, like while driving, that no other interface is suitable.

There is just something distinctly creepy about talking to a computer, it's a sci-fi geek dream but one of those things that's just uncomfortable in reality.

of course there will be a 5

3 hours ago, AndyC wrote

@Ray7: hehe, it always makes me chuckle when you see speech recognition folks opinion's of how we'll all be using computers just by talking to them, apparently it's always just around the corner. Yet when you look at the reality of things, people really only tend to use it as an assistive technology or in the few occasions, like while driving, that no other interface is suitable.

There is just something distinctly creepy about talking to a computer, it's a sci-fi geek dream but one of those things that's just uncomfortable in reality.

I love the idea of voice control, but I just don't see me ever wanting to do it in public. Who wants to call out their contacts on a train?

Or surf the net:

'Goto BigJuggs.com'

It'll be interesting to see though, especially writing text messages by voice. That would be handy in the car if they can pull it off.

6 minutes ago, Ray7 wrote

*snip*

It'll be interesting to see though, especially writing text messages by voice. That would be handy in the car if they can pull it off.

 

I imagine the next version of the iPhone will have speech to text for SMS messages; this is a feature of Mango so Apple will now have to join in the "We've got all the features they've got" game now that Steve Jobs is no longer there to say "No, I decide which features people want."

Herbie

8 minutes ago, Ray7 wrote

*snip*

I love the idea of voice control, but I just don't see me ever wanting to do it in public. Who wants to call out their contacts on a train?

Nobody does, that's a large part of the problem.

It'll be interesting to see though, especially writing text messages by voice. That would be handy in the car if they can pull it off.

 

You can do that in Mango already, works pretty well actually.