I wasn't using the promotional upgrade pricing and I included yearly updates since MSDN subs guarantee you the latest versions. If you're relying on hosted SQL/IIS then you need to include the price of those in your budget when comparing your costs to an MSDN sub.
If you're a small one-man shop that does mostly basic web stuff with no true dev or test environments, then an MSDN sub is probably not worth it. In fact, I'd probably stick with the free Express versions, as there's no limitation on commercial use.
what does dev or test environments have to do with anything? What's wrong with having my test database or test website on a hosted managed server?