5 minutes ago, wastingtimewithforums wrote
So, where is Microsoft's assurance for the desktop?! There is NONE. If Microsoft is so serious about it, maybe they should show it.
Or we could just say:
So where is Microsoft's assurance for shipping a calculator in Windows?! There is NONE. If Microsoft is so serious about it, maybe they should show it.
While I have no influence or insights into the exact future of the Windows desktop, calculator or other such areas (these days I'm working in an unannounced and very niche area in Server that will make an awesome Channel 9 video when we go public)... I learned long ago that an absence of a definitive specific statement does not necessarily indicate the opposite.
You know... Microsoft also hasn't said what the next version of many of it's products will be named... know what that means? Absolutely nothing!
A little bit of non-conspiratorial/paranoid thinking goes a long way.
No, right now Windows 8 + enhancements is better for the existing desktop users than going Mac + Windows emulator. But it's not better than Windows 7.
And yet that's not what you said to start with.
Steam?! Who is trolling here who? The counter sites are far more representative than a game service.
No... it's called thinking broadly without getting caught up in pointless minutia.
Most computer users don't upgrade just because a new version of anything is out... most upgrade when what they have is dead, too slow, or so uncool that they must upgrade... but also do it in certain semi-predictable waves (more on that in a few).
The Steam survey does measure a smaller group of users... but also a group that is more likely to upgrade (HW or SW) more frequently than an average user.
Even so, Windows 8 share lagged behind the 3.3% share that Vista scored after its third full month of availability. In fact, last month's seven-tenths of a point gap between the two was more than double the difference of three-tenths of a point in December, indicating that Windows 8 is not only not matching Vista's pace, but failing further behind.
So, Vista was at 3.3% after three months, Windows 8 is just at 3.8% after double the period. Not to mention that Vista was released for the general public well after the Christmas season, while W8 got the black Friday and Christmas boost, and despite this is still well behind.
I see what you did there... you ignored some #'s... you mentioned where Vista was 3 months out, but ignored your second article's comments about Vista 6 months out which are far less dire for 8:
Vista, by way of contrast, showed far more explosive growth. In June, 2007, it had 4.54% market share
So ~6 months after release... Vista was at 4.54%... and just yesterday it was reported that Windows 8 (~6 months since release) 3.82%... a little behind % wise sure, but ignoring the psychology of upgrade cycles... you still seem to be missing two important things:
1. The economy in many a country is still not in tip top shape (In 3/2013 the unemployment rate in the US was 7.6%... while in 6/07 it was just 4.6%... you seem to be discounting the possibility that peoples abilities to get & maintain stable and gainful employment could affect purchasing.
2. The PC market has expanded significantly since 2007, meaning it takes many more sales in order to hit the same % numbers.
We'll also ignore the fact that Windows 8 is fighting the same battle that Windows 7 did... competing against previous versions which still offer a compelling experience that runs on hardware which does age as badly as HW of just a few years earlier.
Not to mention Windows 8 is doing so poorly despite being a tablet OS as well.
So the fact it is a new product in a fairly established market with existing and entrenched players has no baring on what kind of headwinds it might be facing? Riiiight. I wonder what your excuse about Mac OS (desktop & laptop) or Linux (desktop & laptop) market share is.
Lets think some more... shall we? I know it's hard...
When it comes to cars... how many people do you think say "Oh the new model year is out! Time to go trade in what I've got and get the latest and greatest?
Not many.
Some (like me) drive their old vehicle into the ground and keep on going before getting something new.
Most though tend to be content with what they have until their general satisfaction has gone down just enough that the wiz-bang-wow new models suddenly justify the cost & hassle of getting something newer. Sometimes they go out immediately and get something... more often (provided their isn't an immediate motivating factor like an existing dead vehicle)... they'll wait for the next thing to come out.
PCs are similar. Most businesses upgrade on a 3-4 year cycle while most users tend to be in a 3-5 year cycle (in my personal experience).
XP was approaching 5 years old by the time Vista came out and with the age of the 'old' stuff and the newness of the new... upgrading (either full PC or just OS) is a very attractive proposition.
Vista was 3 years old when Windows 7 came out... the same age 7 was when 8 came out.
In both cases... HW purchased at the start of each OS cycle was still at the lower end of the normal upgrade cycle, which means that an immediate upgrade is less likely unless there is something major to justify the hassle and cost of an upgrade (just like I said above about cars, funny that).
Overtime we'll see more and more XP, Vista and 7 machines be replaced with ones running 8... just as fewer and fewer later model cars on the road as they are replaced by more recent ones.
If I didn't know any better... I'd say that you've got a vested interest in Windows 8 failing... but then I cannot imagine why you'd waste your time with such a proposition that is so unrelated to you... which strikes me as a rather sad way to live ones life.
