19 minutes ago, spivonious wrote
Anyway, we're getting off-topic. I think MS buying Nokia's devices division is a mistake and will only hurt relationships, however weak they currently are, with the other phone OEMs. MS cannot succeed in the phone market by going with an iPhone approach. They need to compete with Android, which has the <$100 entry-level phones to the $700+ premier phones and everything in between.
I'm concerned with this as well, but your analysis seems way off for several reasons.
1. Google owns Motorola and is now very much in the game of competing with the other OEMs using Android. The comparison would be more accurate if Microsoft were buying HTC or Google had bought Samsung, but regardless neither are comparable to Apple.
2. Nokia has, and thus Microsoft now has, phone offerings that range from the $100 entry level to the $700+ premier phones, and the devices are doing well at all those price points. In fact, one could argue that WP has more compelling devices at both extremes. So, they compete directly with Android in all market segments.
I'm not sure that a concern about other OEMs pulling out over this is much of a real concern either. The only other OEM that is even sort of in the WP camp is HTC, and HTC right now would have to consider long and hard before putting all of their eggs in one basket. Not to mention, like I just pointed out, Google is just as much a direct competitor for HTC as Microsoft now is. I don't think they are any more likely to drop WP and go solely Android today then they were yesterday (which is not to say that possibility didn't exist then, and so still exists now).
I think the real danger here is that Microsoft just went "all-in". They no longer have an outside influence on the future of WP. WP will, from this point forward, be viewed strictly as a "Microsoft thing". This means the image problem they've been suffering with is now no longer being influenced by Nokia's presence. If Microsoft can't do something about the image problem immediately, then I believe we've just seen the start of the decline of the WP platform (and yes, I'm aware of how little room there is for decline). I also believe that at this point, a failure of WP is almost assuredly going to be the tipping point, and the assurance that Microsoft is destined to be the next IBM.
Then again, if they can pull this off, this could also be seen as the most strategic move Microsoft has made in decades.
Who would have thought that anything having to do with the "3%" mobile OS could be so crucial?