Vista delayed...misses Christmas - launch now 2007 | The Coffeehouse

irascian
Irascible Ian

Escamillo wrote:
I think some of you guys are overestimating the "missing Christmas shopping season" stuff. In my circles, OSes aren't Christmas gifts.

I totally disagree. Most consumers won't spend money on upgrading their operating system anyway. Vista will find its way out into the big wide world primarily through new PCs which have it pre-installed. MANY new PCs are bought at Christmas. Microsoft effectively just delayed the rollout and subsequent market share take-up by the best part of a year.

The dates we were being given just a few months ago were "an RTM of August - to give the OEMs time to test it and get it ready for machines to be sold over the holday period". It's worrying that after years of supposed development, with endless descoping this late in the day the date has shifted again.

What disappoints far more than the delay is the way the announcement has been handled in the press release from Microsoft. It smacks of dishonesty - trying to put across the idea that nothing's been delayed really (businesses will still get it in November - that'll be those businesses still running NT4 and Windows 2000 because they're so desperate for the latest OS, right??!!!), everything's pretty much as it was meant to be and then quoting some HP bod as saying it's good news that it won't be on new PCs sold over the Christmas period because now they can sell it after CHristmas?!?! Get real!

scobleizer
I'm the video guy

>Where's Scoble?

I'm in Las Vegas, at the Mix conference. I found out about this last night. So, there was no way I could get back to Redmond, interview key people, and get reaction up on Channel 9.

Personally, I +am+ embarrassed.

Although, I was embarrassed the first time Vista (then Longhorn) slipped so I've become pretty used to this.

And, the Windows team has a history of slipping. Before I was a Microsoft employee I was a beta tester for Windows 2000. Anyone remember how many years that slipped between beta shipments? I do, and it wasn't pretty, although in the end it was an excellent release.

I'd rather go for quality than to try to make some date. Customers will forgive a slip in dates, like they did with Windows 2000, but they won't forgive a slip in quality. Anyone remember ME? I do.

jamie

re: Anyone remember ME? I do.

im glad you remember you robert...so do all of us!

(joke) Tongue Out

glad your back. yes its a delay - like in the past ... but man oh man....

Rossj

Can I be the first one to make the Duke Nukem Forever comparison? Just kidding.

In all seriousness, does it really matter that it is going to be a whole 4 weeks or so late? You computers will still work and people will still be writing applications for it.

I can understand Microsoft being upset .. but some of the reactions might be considered a little over the top.

jamie

to me its 5..6? years over the top .. plus one unexpected holiday season...

scobleizer
I'm the video guy

Really Jamie? The first time I heard about Longhorn was about a month before I was hired as a Microsoft employee. That was April 2003. I expected it to ship in 2005 sometime. So it's running about a year late in my book. If you expected it before then you were drinking better Merlot than I can currently afford. Smiley

jamie

sorry - that was ie (to some - the same thing)

the years of longhorn/vista are close though

* also - the betas of xp were way more ..um wicked than anything so far from vista - meaning we could use them (no hidden alchin tax: "stop releasing my features")

i feel like ive been using xp forever - i never liked 2000/me era at all - and remember the flack i took for running the xp betas (at work )

i may be wrong - but i "think" i remember running the xp betas - when 2000 was pretty much finally released (as it took so long?)

perhaps thats why XP over-delivered in betas - as it was the finished product of two coliding comets (95/nt or 2000/me)

every longhorn/vista beta - in contrary - has been exciting to think about using - but totally unusable

Winston Pang

scobleizer wrote:
Really Jamie? The first time I heard about Longhorn was about a month before I was hired as a Microsoft employee. That was April 2003. I expected it to ship in 2005 sometime. So it's running about a year late in my book. If you expected it before then you were drinking better Merlot than I can currently afford.

But i can swear those 3xxx builds which had the Plex visual style were around back in 2002. This is way way back before the longhorn reset.

So i'm pretty sure Longhorn/Vista is now nearing 4 years or even more if you consider the stages of planning whats gonna be in the product as part of its lifecycle.

Not to mention, i'm pretty sure from reading that, as soon as a product at MS goes to the RC stages and is almost RTM, MS starts thinking about what goes in the next release.

So if XP came out in 2001 October, and it RTM'ed in August that year, then MS would definitely have been thinking about what's gonna be in the next Windows. Yet they still had a reset in the development as well.

It puzzles me, i know Vista is a huge change compared to previous releases, but with these delays and factoring in the reset in development, is MS doing anything wrong? Have they wasted a lot of time?

Btw scoble this is in no way flamming you, but i'm just raising questions to what i don't understand. I also understand that engineering a product like this is difficult as well as having to think legacy wise a lot.

Jaz
From the depths of Wales I come

dave, bruce. if you had to give a ball park answer, without promising anything, is the release of IE7 for XP also delayed till january?

Minh
WOOH! WOOH!

Zeo wrote:
Windows Vista delayed until 2007... taking Halo 2 with it?

hmmm....goood question.

Good question indeed.

- Oh, thank you mommy. Halo (tm) 2 for Vista (tm) only is the BESTEST X-mas gift ever! I can't wait to play it.

- Oh, Jonny! The new computer we got you only has *SOB* XP *SOB* on it.

PS

I think Halo 2 for Vista took 1 man-month to convert. Remember Bungie used to do Mac/Windows cross platform releases. They know how to structure their code. Plus, how long does it take to insert

if (WINDOWS_VERSION < VERSION_VISTA) return 0;

pwzeus

lol jemie like u r avatar

LarryOsterman

BruceMorgan wrote:
People don't often work 80-120 hour work weeks. Again, you're woefully misinformed. There are certain times when 80 hour work weeks are needed (like MIX06 prep last week, for some people), but we're not going to "crunch mode" our way all the way to the Windows Vista launch or the IE7 launch.

WORD!

I did the 3-year long crunch mode for NT 3.1, I'm never, ever going to do it again.

Sourcecode
Whatever it is, I didn't do it.

LarryOsterman wrote:

BruceMorgan wrote: People don't often work 80-120 hour work weeks. Again, you're woefully misinformed. There are certain times when 80 hour work weeks are needed (like MIX06 prep last week, for some people), but we're not going to "crunch mode" our way all the way to the Windows Vista launch or the IE7 launch.

WORD!

I did the 3-year long crunch mode for NT 3.1, I'm never, ever going to do it again.

Both funny, and alarming that, that was the best OS MS ever released to date. For it’s time by far the most solid and secure OS.

Hummm maybe a few weeks/months of 120 hr work weeks is exactly what MS need to shake stuff up, and do it properly.

Lazycoder2

LarryOsterman wrote:

BruceMorgan wrote: People don't often work 80-120 hour work weeks. Again, you're woefully misinformed. There are certain times when 80 hour work weeks are needed (like MIX06 prep last week, for some people), but we're not going to "crunch mode" our way all the way to the Windows Vista launch or the IE7 launch.

WORD!

I did the 3-year long crunch mode for NT 3.1, I'm never, ever going to do it again.

"After three weeks of 9-to-9 plus an occasional weekend, today I've been informed it was too late for me to catch the would-be-last RI for B2. It was gut-wrenching, unbelievably frustrating and I felt dejected.

Not an hour later, Brian V sent his email and I found out there would be slippage and more RIs. "

From MiniMsft comments.

Looks like some people still have to work god-awful hours to meet their B2 deadlines. Maybe Larry and Bruce are lucky enough to work on a team that has their act together.

It's interesting that they are able to announce the slip THIS early in the year. Sounds to me like the first ship date was marketings wishful thinking.

Vista is a HUGE undertaking, in the amount of time it takes to ship Vista, Apple will have gone from shipping a brand new OS based on a completely different architecture to 6 different versions of the OS. Not to mention multiple upgrades to the personal productivity suites and hardware products. Entire companies have risen and fallen in the time it will take to ship Vista.

I'm thinking that they way Microsoft designs and writes it's software HAS to change. I hope the changes in Vista allow for them to incorporate smaller changes faster. If it slips to 2008, it will have taken the entireity of G.W. Bushs time in office to ship Vista.

sourcecode wrote:

Both funny, and alarming that, that was the best OS MS ever released to date. For it’s time by far the most solid and secure OS.

IMO, Dos 5 was the most stable OS I've *ever* used. Including every variation of Windows, MacOS/OS X, multiple Linux flavors and two versions of OS/2.

LarryOsterman

Lazycoder2 wrote:

LarryOsterman wrote:

BruceMorgan wrote: People don't often work 80-120 hour work weeks. Again, you're woefully misinformed. There are certain times when 80 hour work weeks are needed (like MIX06 prep last week, for some people), but we're not going to "crunch mode" our way all the way to the Windows Vista launch or the IE7 launch.

WORD!

I did the 3-year long crunch mode for NT 3.1, I'm never, ever going to do it again.

"After three weeks of 9-to-9 plus an occasional weekend, today I've been informed it was too late for me to catch the would-be-last RI for B2. It was gut-wrenching, unbelievably frustrating and I felt dejected.

Not an hour later, Brian V sent his email and I found out there would be slippage and more RIs. "

From MiniMsft comments.

Looks like some people still have to work god-awful hours to meet their B2 deadlines. Maybe Larry and Bruce are lucky enough to work on a team that has their act together.

It's interesting that they are able to announce the slip THIS early in the year. Sounds to me like the first ship date was marketings wishful thinking.

Vista is a HUGE undertaking, in the amount of time it takes to ship Vista, Apple will have gone from shipping a brand new OS based on a completely different architecture to 6 different versions of the OS. Not to mention multiple upgrades to the personal productivity suites and hardware products. Entire companies have risen and fallen in the time it will take to ship Vista.

I'm thinking that they way Microsoft designs and writes it's software HAS to change. I hope the changes in Vista allow for them to incorporate smaller changes faster. If it slips to 2008, it will have taken the entireity of G.W. Bushs time in office to ship Vista.

sourcecode wrote:
Both funny, and alarming that, that was the best OS MS ever released to date. For it’s time by far the most solid and secure OS.

IMO, Dos 5 was the most stable OS I've *ever* used. Including every variation of Windows, MacOS/OS X, multiple Linux flavors and two versions of OS/2.

You misunderstand my comment. I'll do 2 and 3 month crunches, they're a part of life. But I'm never, ever going to do a 3 year crunch where we're constantly 6 months away from shipping. We did that for NT 3.1, and it was (I need to watch my language, really).

At 44, my body physically can't take it.

Lazycoder2

LarryOsterman wrote:
You misunderstand my comment. I'll do 2 and 3 month crunches, they're a part of life. But I'm never, ever going to do a 3 year crunch where we're constantly 6 months away from shipping. We did that for NT 3.1, and it was (I need to watch my language, really).

At 44, my body physically can't take it.

Understood. IMO, 2 and 3 month crunches should NEVER be necessary. I've done those, looking back it's mostly poor expectation management.

Heck, at 34 I'm not sure my body could take it. Wink

Lazycoder2

Karim wrote:

Instead, we get Pollyanna telling us how it's not really so bad after all -- it's just Christmas -- people buy stuff after Christmas, y'know -- and the code will actually be available to our Special Friends in November, so there....

Here's something I thought about on the way to work today.

Vista won't ship to consumers until Jan-ish because they need more time to stabilize, feature-ize, security-ize, etc.... But the corps. get it in Nov.

What stabilizations, features, and security enhancements will the corps. be missing if they adopt early? Will there be a special "Special Friends" service pack to catch up the early corp. adopters with the retail version?

Lazycoder2

blatzcoder wrote:
That is why I have little desire to ever work for Microsoft. I always figured I would get stuck on some team that would force 80+ hours a week out of me.

You can't raise a family sanely like that. Having several people burn out on your staff means your workplace is doing something seriously wrong. That's not sacrifice...it's called "using people".

It's not necessarily Microsoft forcing it. I've got an ex-softie working for me. He was a senior SDE on Visual Studio and later Office. He's putting in 12-16 hour days on a project that has a current total user base of 5. It's not even mission critical, it's a data entry front end. Complaining the whole time about the hours he "has" to work. We've told him point blank several times, "You don't need to work so much.". But he continues with his macho posturing and martyrdom. (shrug) He saw that I got into the office before he did (working 10 hour days, 4 days a week so I can be home with my daughter) and said "I'll have to come in earlier so I can be here before the boss."

What do you do? He'll burn out in a few years and I'll have to hire someone else or fill his position while he's on leave.

Kental

Lazycoder2 wrote:
It's not necessarily Microsoft forcing it. I've got an ex-softie working for me. He was a senior SDE on Visual Studio and later Office. He's putting in 12-16 hour days on a project that has a current total user base of 5. It's not even mission critical, it's a data entry front end. Complaining the whole time about the hours he "has" to work. We've told him point blank several times, "You don't need to work so much.". But he continues with his macho posturing and martyrdom. (shrug) He saw that I got into the office before he did (working 10 hour days, 4 days a week so I can be home with my daughter) and said "I'll have to come in earlier so I can be here before the boss."

What do you do? He'll burn out in a few years and I'll have to hire someone else or fill his position while he's on leave.

Not only that, but some people, like myself, are just complete workaholics. Also, some people (again like myself) HATE leaving a job half done or half-assed, so going home when there's a problem is almost not an option. I've put in several days of 13 or 14 hours because I wanted to see something just overwith and done and out of the way. My boss had nothing to do with it. In fact, my boss didn't even know I was doing it. You don't always have to assume people are doing it just to be noticed Tongue Out

Lazycoder2

Kental wrote:
You don't always have to assume people are doing it just to be noticed

Good point. But he's doing it to be noticed. Either that or he's the worst programmer ever.

He also complains about the commute from way out on the eastside to Seattle. Why he applied for a job in Seattle if he hates Seattle and the commute so much I'll never understand.

Heck, the commute would be the one thing that would make me work long hours if I worked at Microsoft. Wink

back on topic: Vista slipping, suckage or "good thing"? I'd like to hear from more engineers and PMs about whether the push-back was a long time coming, or if some aggressive triaging of features and bugs would have helped make the "original" date.

Wil
Wil

The PC vendors were counting on an advertising campaign "This year, skip the iPod, skip the 8 megapixel camera, skip the 40" plasma screen - what you must buy for Christmas in 2006 is a new PC, because MS is coming out with this thing called "Vista" that will change everyone's on-line life forever, and your old PC with its slow CPU, its underpowered graphics card, and its insufficient memory just won't run it! So this Christmas rush down to your neighborhood computer or electronics store and buy a new whiz-bang computer with Vista on it!!!" Now will that advertising campaign have to be modified to say that those whiz-bang computers won't actually have this "Vista" thing running on them, but they will be sold with a voucher that you can redeem to get Vista in a box whenever it becomes available? It sounds to me as if 2006 will be a good Christmas season for the iPod, 8 megapixel camera, and 40" plasma screen manufacturers and resellers! Sorry, PC builders...

Karim
Trapped in a world he never made!

Lazycoder2 wrote:

Karim wrote:
Instead, we get Pollyanna telling us how it's not really so bad after all -- it's just Christmas -- people buy stuff after Christmas, y'know -- and the code will actually be available to our Special Friends in November, so there....

Here's something I thought about on the way to work today.

Vista won't ship to consumers until Jan-ish because they need more time to stabilize, feature-ize, security-ize, etc.... But the corps. get it in Nov.

What stabilizations, features, and security enhancements will the corps. be missing if they adopt early? Will there be a special "Special Friends" service pack to catch up the early corp. adopters with the retail version?

Good question!! This has me scratching my head too, and I haven't had time to scour the materials to see what the official excuse was.

I think Zeo theorized it's something with a large OEM (e.g. Dell) holding things up, because of the references to "logistics."

I can think of a couple of other possibilities:

1) Intel wants to Vista to ship with their new 64-bit processors that (were) supposedly coming out this fall (Merom/Conroe). Maybe Intel hit a snag and the new processors are going to be delayed? So they talked Microsoft into delaying Vista?

2) The advertising campaign won't be ready Big Smile

Maybe U2 changed their minds about giving Microsoft the rights to "With or Without You" for the TV commercials Wink

Or there is some problem creating a cardboard box.

3) The problem is with a consumer-only SKUs (e.g. Ultimate Edition?)

The Microsoft press release on this is thin on details, only implying that it has something to do with people being able to walk into Best Buy and having "a broad set of choices" (*cough* Ultimate Edition *cough*) as well as "immediate availability" (*cough* not going to be ready *cough*) and "a great retail experience." WTF? If I want a great retail experience, I'll go to Nordstrom, not Best Buy. Tongue Out

Too bad Nordstrom doesn't sell software... Expressionless

You know I really don't have a problem with the delay itself, it's disappointing, but s--t happens, you know? I'm just disappointed it's being spun so happily. Delay is a good thing, really! The whole world is running MICROSOFT VISTA IS DELAYED articles, it was even on the BBC World Service radio last night as a top news story... but Microsoft's press release is titled "Microsoft Updates Windows Vista Road Map."

LOL So when Wagg-Ed starts writing obituaries instead of press releases, it won't be "[PERSON] DIES," but rather "[PERSON] UPDATES LIFE EXPECTANCY ROAD MAP."

It's on the BBC News home page today ("Microsoft delay"):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4832224.stm

With a lovely picture of Bill Gates doing a howler monkey impersonation. (Why do they always pick the worst photograph...?)

The article says, "Most computer sales also take place in the crucial fourth quarter period which covers Christmas." So how Microsoft can turn around and say the delay won't affect sales...? Who buys a computer in December knowing it will be obsolete in January?

The other day Bill Gates said his company did a mea culpa on Internet Explorer -- they admitted IE 7 shouldn't have taken so long, and promised not to let it languish again.

Where's the mea culpa here? Where's the "Microsoft Apologizes to Children of World for Cancelling Christmas?" press release? How about taking a little responsibility instead of just telling us the delay is going to make Vista that much better?

Sheesh. Is it that hard to say "We're sorry?"

Or did they say it somewhere else, just not in the press release?

Scoble gets a lot of credit for "putting a human face" on Microsoft, and I have to say, when he posted in this thread that he was personally embarassed about the delay, I thought, FINALLY, something that sounds like a human being.

irascian
Irascible Ian

Rossj wrote:
I can understand Microsoft being upset .. but some of the reactions might be considered a little over the top.

Here yes, elsewhere no. As one of my clients put it today "Some OEMs are going to go bust as a result of this. Microsoft have made promises and now they've shafted them without even saying 'Sorry'."

And now, instead of apologising for what will effectively mean a year's delay in real take-up in the consumer space (Christmas is when new PCs sell), for affecting company's bottom-line annual rsults we get a rah! rah! press release claiming this is GOOD NEWS for vendors. ??!!? WTF!

Those working with VIsta as part of the TAP programme got a rushed email this morning. Try and reconcile these two contradictory statements that appear in the same short email:

"We are on track to complete the Windows Vista product this year."

"Current feedback is that we may need additional time to get quality where we want it to be."

What is the message this gives out other than "We haven't got a clue"!

A little more honesty about why there's a delay (or even admitting yes, there is a delay and it's not us pretending we're absolutely "on track") and an apology for those who will be seriously affected by this would be more in order.

Many of us here are Microsoft advocates in the work place, despite playing devil's advocate a lot of the time here and when working with the company's reps. The Vista delay doesn't affect me personally - in fact it gives me some breathing space. But it makes my job as promoter of Microsoft technologies more difficult as it shows that yet again the company's detractors and competitors' claims that "They won't deliver on time. They never do. They'll pretend they're your friends and then shaft you" has been proven right yet again.

As Scoble says "I'm embarrassed" even though I'm not directlyu involved. Microsoft should have handled the news and the way people were told a LOT better than this and had a little more humility over the way it was announced.

ScanIAm
On a scale of 1 to 10, people are stupid.

Karim wrote:

Good question!! This has me scratching my head too, and I haven't had time to scour the materials to see what the official excuse was.

I think Zeo theorized it's something with a large OEM (e.g. Dell) holding things up, because of the references to "logistics."

Yep, I was thinking about it this morning. I wonder if MSFT is taking the rap just to avoid the ultimate finger pointing that would/could ruin best-buy or Dell.

Karim wrote:

I can think of a couple of other possibilities:

1) Intel wants to Vista to ship with their new 64-bit processors that (were) supposedly coming out this fall (Merom/Conroe). Maybe Intel hit a snag and the new processors are going to be delayed? So they talked Microsoft into delaying Vista?

I doubt it. AMD would LOVE to supply the chips instead Smiley

Karim wrote:

2) The advertising campaign won't be ready Maybe U2 changed their minds about giving Microsoft the rights to "With or Without You" for the TV commercials Or there is some problem creating a cardboard box.

When is U2 going to open their own advert agency. Somehow I can't mesh "world peace" with "shameless mass marketing", but that's me.

One thing you didn't mention is the possiblity that this is a problem with 3rd party hardware. I just tried to buy an ASUS mobo from newegg and they were out, and will be out for a few weeks. Dell may not have enough hardware to build the expected machines.

Anybody remember when the memory chip plant 'burnt down' in the 90s and memory was super expensive (and unavailable)?

Karim wrote:

You know I really don't have a problem with the delay itself, it's disappointing, but s--t happens, you know? I'm just disappointed it's being spun so happily. Delay is a good thing, really! The whole world is running MICROSOFT VISTA IS DELAYED articles, it was even on the BBC World Service radio last night as a top news story... but Microsoft's press release is titled "Microsoft Updates Windows Vista Road Map."

LOL So when Wagg-Ed starts writing obituaries instead of press releases, it won't be "[PERSON] DIES," but rather "[PERSON] UPDATES LIFE EXPECTANCY ROAD MAP."

Funny

I gave up years ago being disappointed with lawyerspeak, marketspeak, policespeak, priestspeak, etc. The bad part is that the when it happens, I feel like I'm being lied to. I'd rather they just say "Look, we screwed up, deal with it."

It'll never happen.

Karim wrote:

The article says, "Most computer sales also take place in the crucial fourth quarter period which covers Christmas." So how Microsoft can turn around and say the delay won't affect sales...? Who buys a computer in December knowing it will be obsolete in January?

I'll bet dollars to donuts they offer an upgrade method that is free or cheap.

Karim wrote:

The other day Bill Gates said his company did a mea culpa on Internet Explorer -- they admitted IE 7 shouldn't have taken so long, and promised not to let it languish again.

Where's the mea culpa here? Where's the "Microsoft Apologizes to Children of World for Cancelling Christmas?" press release? How about taking a little responsibility instead of just telling us the delay is going to make Vista that much better?

Sheesh. Is it that hard to say "We're sorry?"

It'll happen. The timing of this announcement was planned, I'm sure, but it also occurs during a (some) conference(s) so the sacrificial lambs are busy living it up before they have to come home for the spanking they'll get.

jkwuc89

From the mini-MS blog...I thought this was rather amusing:

VISTA is secure, it's new, it's improved, it has more features, it's innovative.... blah, blah, blah.

All you need to know and all people know is that: IT IS LATE AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN

50+ million lines of code: Goodness, are you guys building an OS or preparing to setup shop on MARS.

To be honest, I think going to Mars actually took a shorter period of time.