blatzcoder wrote:
It's quite obvious what is going on, actually. It is marketing, plain and simple. They are able to deliver to volume licensed customers first. That suggests that it is not a DVD manufacturing problem. By staggering the delivery dates of the OS/Office Suite it builds momentum. They know it is going to be a hard sell to deliver as OS/Office Suite that is worthy of being XP's successor, and what better to way to keep the buzz going than by spreading out the release dates. Think of this analogy:
a) Rock star records album, but only releases single
b) Album gets released after weeks of airplay for the single
c) Rock star goes on tour
Once the tour is over, that rock star sort of fades into obscurity until the next album. The point is, the dates are spread out. Rarely does the single, album and tour occur at exactly the same time.
That's an interesting theory, but the press coverage on the Vista delay has been almost entirely
negative. i.e. Microsoft screwed up. When Madonna releases a single from her upcoming new album, you don't read stories in the
Wall Street Journal about how Madonna screwed up because the rest of her album is
delayed.
There's a difference between Madonna doing a staggered release
on purpose, and Microsoft surprising Wall Street and investors by
accident.
MSFT dropped 2.3% after the announcement. That's what, a couple BILLION dollars of capitalization that went up in smoke?
Cowen & Co. estimated that the delay will cost Microsoft between $250 million and $845 million in fiscal 2007 revenue, or a penny to 5 cents a share in earnings. (from
http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20060322-000700-1001)
Sure, $845 million is cab fare to Microsoft. Still, knocking a few percent of the market cap and losing a few hundred million in revenue doesn't seem like the smartest trade for intangibles like "building momentum" and "keeping the buzz going."