Apple Shares drop 6% on AT&T activation numbers | The Coffeehouse

Who the hell knows what this means... I sure don't.

Nevertheless, AT&T released the activation figures for the first weekend -- 146,000 -- which were quite a ways short of the anticipated 500,000... technical problems or not.

I'll be interesting to see what the market makes of Apple's Q3 statement, but it looks a bit like a reality check might be forthcoming.

jamie

i saw that.. the number .. and thought the same thing.. 146k? huh? thats it?

Rossj

MB wrote:

Who the hell knows what this means... I sure don't.

Nevertheless, AT&T released the activation figures for the first weekend -- 146,000 -- which were quite a ways short of the anticipated 500,000... technical problems or not.

In all fairness, Apple never claimed 500,000, the analysts did. Then again they didn't contradict them Sad

Rd_Falcon

hi, I tend to just come to channel 9 to view what others have to say about technology, but since this is a topic about financials, which is what I am currently studying, I thought I would share my opinion on Apple's stock.

Going off of pure technical information (P/E, growth, EPS, and industry average) Apple should be priced in the $90's. But on top of this price you have to factor in the retail value (what consumers feel the company is worth) which I believe puts the company at a fair value of $125. I figure this based on optimism and their product lineup. With the Iphone missing the target sales, I believe it will pull back a little bit more yet from the current level before it hits its bottom.

Does anyone have an opinion on my take?

Custa1200

Rd_Falcon wrote:

hi, I tend to just come to channel 9 to view what others have to say about technology, but since this is a topic about financials, which is what I am currently studying, I thought I would share my opinion on Apple's stock.

Going off of pure technical information (P/E, growth, EPS, and industry average) Apple should be priced in the $90's. But on top of this price you have to factor in the retail value (what consumers feel the company is worth) which I believe puts the company at a fair value of $125. I figure this based on optimism and their product lineup. With the Iphone missing the target sales, I believe it will pull back a little bit more yet from the current level before it hits its bottom.

Does anyone have an opinion on my take?

Who's target sales did they miss? I am sure Apple have never publicly stated predicted sales numbers except what they would like to have shipped by the end of '08.

Be interesting to hear from Apple how many iPhones they have shipped, and nobody knows that yet.

Minh

I don't know anything about the market besides buy-low-sell-high, but I definitely agree about the perception of Apple as a company. But it's a well-deserved perception, I think. In a very short time, Apple has came to dominate the MP3 player market, with a very handsome piece of software.

They put emphasis on physical design. And people listen.

But that 140,000 sign-ups probably has more to with the phone's price tag. But, you know, I don't care.

Went out and got me an iPhone. People tell me it's pretty. I guess. Portability is an issue, though. But it's pretty.

Rd_Falcon

The target sales that I was refering to would be the analyst concensus (goldman sachs included along with several other firms.) I have only been investing for a year now, but I have learned that it doesn't matter what the company states earnings or sales to be, the analysts predictions outweigh those of the company themself.

Here is a nice article from the wall street journal that gives a better overview of the sentiment on wall street with the current information available.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118527694097076070.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

Minh

Dylan Copeland wrote:

Minh, did you actually purchase one of those linksys iphones?

Yeah, an Apple iPhone.... from Walmart Wink

Rossj

Rd_Falcon wrote:

it doesn't matter what the company states earnings or sales to be, the analysts predictions outweigh those of the company themself.

That sounds fair .. Sad

But then if Apple were really worried they could have posted their targets, but then people might consider them low in comparison - I guess I can't see how Apple can win in that situation.

Rd_Falcon

Dylan Copeland wrote:

Does anyone have any other sales / activation figures for other phones. Maybe the Razr, Moto Q, Blackberry Perl?

Sorry, I couldn't find actual activation numbers, but I was able to find the revenue growth for Q2 for both Research in motion and Palm. RIMM (stock symbol) grew by 73%, beating expectations by $0.11 and Palm lost market share with revenue down 40%.

So in summary, Blackberry is gaining marketshare, and is expected to continue its growth for Q3 and Palm has lost some ground at the moment.

Ray6

Rossj wrote:

MB wrote:Who the hell knows what this means... I sure don't.

Nevertheless, AT&T released the activation figures for the first weekend -- 146,000 -- which were quite a ways short of the anticipated 500,000... technical problems or not.

In all fairness, Apple never claimed 500,000, the analysts did. Then again they didn't contradict them

If you look back over the past several months, Apple has said very little about the iPhone other than its usual brand of high class marketing;

This is purely down to the analysts. They quite simply lost their minds, falling over themselves to come up with the most outlandish claims about the iPhone so that they could drive more Apple fans to their site.

The Register disagrees with me, but I really don't see this as being anything to do with Apple. Companies generate hype, analysts cut through it; that's how it is supposed to work. But these days, analysts will just say what they think people want to here.

The Register's take

Rd_Falcon

I have to fully agree with you Ray. Analysts seem to have a way of manipulating information to go in their favor.

As the summer drags on I'm getting concerned that this is becoming a standard practice with all companies, not just apple. I'm starting to get the feeling that the market as a whole is starting to get overbought, and after days like this where the Dow falls 1.5% and the Nas. 2%, that feeling keeps getting reinforced.

MB

Analysts are fast becoming the "legalised" form of market manipulation.

Predict a stock is going to rise, hype the heck out of it, lo & behold, it rises ...claim you're a genius... then predict it's going to crash because it's over-reached reality (and presumably after you've sold your "arms-length" owned shares) and lo & behold, it crashes ...claim you're a genius...

This is about 1 degree of separation from the various pump & dump spam-scams.