Posted By: Jason I | Oct 1st, 2008 @ 5:10 PM
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Comments: 27 | Views: 932
Some of us are directly impacted by the downturn in the economy. Most of us who own 401k / 403b / IRA plans have seen a dramatic drop in value. Some people who were planning on retiring in the next few years won't be able to, since they can't rely upon their stock investments or any value in their home (as it likely has dropped).

My question is, what do you tell someone who is very close to retirement (or maybe not..) that says, "I don't have to worry about the stock market. I am a state employee with a great pension"... ?
Bass
Bass
www.s​preadfirefox.c​om/5years/
Maybe they don't. The stock market and economy effects everyone, but it effects some people more then others. Someone with a insured government pension is probably not as effected as someone with a 401k/IRA.
Anyone who was planning on retiring anytime soon and was massively affected by this little dip is either a GD idiot or have a financial planner who is the same if not worse.

As you get closer to retirement more and more of one's investments should be moved away from more volatile things like stocks and mutual funds and more stable things like bonds and other insured investments (ie CD's and savings accounts).

This is not something you start to think about a year or two before you plan on retiring but ideally closer to 5-10 years out.

To answer your question though... if a person is expecting on collecting a government pension and is quite close to doing so... in theory they have little to worry about (pension wise at least)... provided the government or company funding it has sufficient assets and/or tax base so as to fund it... otherwise that pension may end up in the hands of the feds and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (if this is a US based employee) which has the same implied backing as Freddie and Fanny Mae... the US taxpayer.
Minh
Minh
WOOH! WOOH!
dahat wrote:
Anyone who was planning on retiring anytime soon and was massively affected by this little dip is either a GD idiot or have a financial planner who is the same if not worse.


It's refreshing to see that getting hired by Microsoft hasn't changed you from an * who takes delight in the financial disaster faced by many old people. You *!
Here let me fix that for you...

It's refreshing to see that getting hired by Microsoft hasn't changed you from an * who doesn't feel sympathy or responsibility to/for those suffering in the financial disaster faced by many old people who did not take proper steps to protect themselves in some way. You *!
You're right... it's so horrible for me to expect that people be responsible for themselves. I'm such an *.
Maddus Mattus
Maddus Mattus
Do, or do not. There is no try. - Yoda
No mere mortal can understand the products they are selling. Only after you bought their product, do you come to understand the trap you are cought in. So how can one act responsible?

Care to provide an example beyond those vague generalities so that a proper response can be made?

Or are you claiming that there were waves and waves of unscrupulous property/investment sellers who were outright preventing the buyers from knowing what they were signing and the implications there of? If so... getting a lawyer to read over a contract and give an opinion really isn't that hard or expensive, especially when you are talking about a large investment or purchase.

evildictaitor
evildictaitor
if( !succeed( try() ) ) { while(true) try(); }
I think he's talking about deriviative bonds and compund stocks, which were triple-A rated and bought by lots of pension funds and other "play-it-safe" investors, which bombed out because they actually were worth much less than triple-A. To some extent he has a point - these bonds are difficult to understand and they were "duped" into buying triple-A rated stocks that arn't worth the paper they're printed on, but on the other hand, very few pensioners will be buying deriviatives or compound stocks directly.
No, the people that created these things don't understand them. He is correct.



I can buy that as a possible argument... though my original statement still stands. Diversification is key, even when it comes to seemingly safe investments.

Unless you are willing to fully trust what other people tell you, one should always be just a bit skeptical and willing/able to examine the facts for themselves. If that isn’t possible in all cases then reducing ones vulnerability in an area they cannot verify themselves is advisable.
evildictaitor
evildictaitor
if( !succeed( try() ) ) { while(true) try(); }
That's certainly true, but arguably one of the points of the grading system was to make understanding the levels of risks in various investments easier to understand. If the government's own regulatory system is telling you that this bond is triple-A rated and will almost never default, it seems unreasonable if it then transpires that the bonds were deliberately made up of partly toxic assets and that you can't get your money out from them. It seems to me that this is more of a failure of the grading system than of the investors not understanding the bonds. If anything it sounds like the grading agencies and regulators didn't understand what they were rating, which is a whole lot more scary.
evildictaitor
evildictaitor
if( !succeed( try() ) ) { while(true) try(); }
Like commuist broccoli, holocaust denying sprouts and cabbages that drown kittens?
There’s a radio host I used to listen to who had a line that was something to the effect of “Never believe anything I say unless it is consistent with what you already know or believe or have spent the time to research the topic yourself.”

It’s not only good advice when listening to someone talk politics/law/motorcycles on the radio but in general.

if it then transpires that the bonds were deliberately made up of partly toxic assets

If fraud was involved then that is a separate issue.

It seems to me that this is more of a failure of the grading system than of the investors not understanding the bonds.

That assumes that said grading system should be relied upon so heavily by investors.

When you... buy a car, computer or even a pair of shoes. Do you go off of ratings and reviews? Or your own examinations and research?

If anything it sounds like the grading agencies and regulators didn't understand what they were rating, which is a whole lot more scary.

And through people unquestioningly trusting said ratings and regulators they make the ratings and regulators seem that more credible, causing an even greater issue.    
evildictaitor
evildictaitor
if( !succeed( try() ) ) { while(true) try(); }
"If fraud was involved then that is a separate issue."

The involvement of the FBI was to do with this, but the issue is larger - if the regulators and rating agencies were rating things that they didn't understand, then the ratings were worthless, and blaming the investors such as pension funds and school trusts who bought the AAA rated bonds and stocks on the basis that they were AAA and therefore wouldn't default seems unfair.


That assumes that said grading system should be relied upon so heavily by investors.
When you... buy a car, computer or even a pair of shoes. Do you go off of ratings and reviews? Or your own examinations and research?

If I was buying a car or a computer it would be a one-time purchase which happens less often than once a year. If I bought a new computer every day and this formed a small part of my job description then I probably wouldn't spend a long time thinking about the purchase or demanding an expert external evaluation - particularly given that the only expert external evaluation agency is the financial regulators who happily sold you a cardboard box described as a new quad-core 5-star rated supercomputer, if you'll excuse the mixed-metaphors.

If the computer was bought on the basis that it would be sold on later, and is only stored at a warehouse, it's entirely possible that you could have an entire warehouse of cardboard boxes and never know until someone else points out that they're all worthless, and it's the guy holding the cardboard boxes at the end who picks up the bill, and the guy who sold it at the beginning of the chain who takes the profit home.

"And through people unquestioningly trusting said ratings and regulators they make the ratings and regulators seem that more credible, causing an even greater issue."

You can't live your entire life assuming that everyone is lying to you and that rating agencies are out to screw you over. Life's too short to assume that everyone is out to get you, and inventing your own comparisons for things when standards already exist.
Bass
Bass
www.s​preadfirefox.c​om/5years/
Yeah I agree. In fact I heard that there could very well be people out there that are so fiscally irresponsible they must beg people online to pay their student loans off for them. Pretty pathetic don't you agree?

I really wonder if these completely hypothetical people should really be giving financial advice. Hypothetically speaking. I might not even know someone who matches this description. In fact this just came out of my head for no good reason, I just happened to think about "people who have issues paying student loans, who also give financial advice", and for some weird reason I felt like I needed to bring it up. Pretty weird huh?
Minh
Minh
WOOH! WOOH!
Bass wrote:
In fact I heard that there could very well be people out there that are so fiscally irresponsible they must beg people online to pay their student loans off for them. Pretty pathetic don't you agree?


LOL. I'd forgotten about that episode.

dahat wrote:
You're right... it's so horrible for me to expect that people be responsible for themselves. I'm such an *.

Now, dahat, not only are you an *, you're also a hyprocrite.

Or maybe dahat's answer is for your grandma to start begging strangers online for money.
Bass
Bass
www.s​preadfirefox.c​om/5years/
I am a bit disappointed I brought it up. I really don't get pleasure from making people look silly. I actually kind of hate it. But sometimes I can't help it. You know sometimes there is this prime opportunity and it's almost impossible to resist. Gaaah....

Forgive me dahat... Sad

I disagree with much of your political views, but at least you are passionate about it. That makes you an okay fellow in my book.
I have had this thread open as a tab in Firefox for the longest time and I haven't gotten a chance to reply until now, so I apologize if I am bringing up an "old thread", but I am only posting the response I didn't get to make a few weeks ago.

Anyway, I think that anyone who decides that he should invest his retirement funds into stocks should make an arrangement with someone who works on Wall Street where he hands the guy from Wallstreet half of his retirement funds in exchange for a swift kick in the rear.

Maybe someone who took business/economics classes knows better, but as far as I can tell, the value of stocks is almost entirely dependent on money people put into them so anyone who expects to gain money through stocks expects to benefit at others' expense. When you invest in stocks, you hand your money over to people who want to make money at your expense. At best, half of the people involved will gain equally and half of the people involved will lose equally, but in reality, it is possible for a few people to gain at a large number of people's expense and it is possible for many people to gain at a few people's expense, and how much they lose or gain does not have to be inline with what other people lose or gain.

The life span of all companies that have ever existed in a healthy economy should follow a normal distribution, so companies should come into business and go out of business. When a company goes out of business, a small number of people who are on top of things will sell their stocks benefiting themselves at the expense of the few people still willing to buy them and those who were not as quick to sell. Since those people still holding stock can no longer sell, they can only recover the funds they "invested" by liquidating the company and distributing it it evenly among their shares. More often than not, the company is not worth the sum of the funds they "invested" (partially because of corporate debt) and they lose money.

People who are managing their retirement funds are people who are not on top of things. As a consequence of this and the fact that corporate lifespans follow a normal distribution, when you invest your retirement funds in stocks, you set yourself up to lose money. It is  therefore illogical to place any funds in stocks when your ultimate goal is to still be able to retrieve those funds at any given point in the future.

By the way, while the rates of companies coming into business and companies going out of business should on average be approximately the same, they really should be roughly equivalent to those in a predator-prey population, so it is a natural occurrence for many companies to go out of business at approximately the same time. It is also a natural occurrence for many companies to come into business at approximately the same time. These are natural events in a free market economy that do not occur a command economy. Of course, the trade off to losing these two events is that your economy no longer benefits from the maximum power principle:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_power_principle#Definition_in_words

Of course, these are my ideas. Maybe someone with a degree in business or economics knows better than me, but having taken several math classes, I am fairly good at math and from all of the reading I have done, this is the situation I see.
evildictaitor
evildictaitor
if( !succeed( try() ) ) { while(true) try(); }
** Anyway, I think that anyone who decides that he should invest his retirement funds into stocks should ... <poor analogy here>

People by-and-large put their money into pension funds. Pension funds typically buy secure bonds and shares, for example ones with a AAA rating. Wouldn't it suck if those bonds turned out to be worthless? Oh ... wait a minute... 

** Maybe someone who took business/economics classes knows better, but as far as I can tell, the value of stocks is almost entirely dependent on money people put into them so anyone who expects to gain money through stocks expects to benefit at others' expense. 

No - the value of stocks is lower bounded by the capital value of the asset, upper bounded by the expected value of the them in the long term (as a function of dividends) and holds the value of the current expected value of the stocks with a short-term future modifier. Stocks have their value change mostly due to changing supply and demand, but shares have their value determined by the profitability and future market direction of the company.

** When you invest in stocks, you hand your money over to people who want to make money at your expense. 
They take a cut, so your profit _IS_ their profit.

** At best, half of the people involved will gain equally and half of the people involved will lose equally
If that were true, investment banks would have a net income of 0 by the law of big-numbers and their volume of trade.

** When a company goes out of business, a small number of people who are on top of things will sell their stocks benefiting themselves at the expense of the few people still willing to buy them and those who were not as quick to sell. 
The people who see the bankruptcy coming from a distance sell first, and make more money than those that see the change later. In fact the true is the same the other way 'round (people who see future profits from furthest away make the most money) - and thus the stock market prunes the investors to the ones who are good at seeing the future trends of companies. This is the reason why capitalism is so effective - companies that are going up in the world need capital investment to generate profitability, and given a finite amount of capital we need people to prioritise which companies capital should go into. The priority should be that the "best" (most profitable) companies (i.e. the highest ROI) should get the most capital - and this requires people who are good at assessing the future profitability of the company - which is exactly the job of the investment banker. Investment banking might look like a job of witchcraft and guess-work, but in reality it's a mechanism to prioritise the capital investment of firms in society - and the investment bankers who make better guesses make more money.

** Since those people still holding stock can no longer sell, they can only recover the funds they "invested" by liquidating the company and distributing it it evenly among their shares. 
Or by selling the shares on the market.

** More often than not, the company is not worth the sum of the funds they "invested" (partially because of corporate debt) and they lose money.
That's not true. More often than not the company is worth more than the sum of funds they invested, because the company has assets which are paid for by the money, and also potential for growth. If investing money was a sure loss maker, noone would do it. Because the opposite is true, it's a multi-trillion dollar business.

** People who are managing their retirement funds are people who are not on top of things. 
Quite the opposite. Pension funds pay more than most for the top accountants, quants and investment firms to manage their assets, and are disturbingly good at it. You might hear that many pension funds are worse off from all of the recent economic trouble, but our internal pension fund _made_ money during Black Monday - indeed there's currently a pension-payments holiday because if they make more money it beats a tax threshold.

**they really should be roughly equivalent to those in a predator-prey population, 
Why? 

** so it is a natural occurrence for many companies to go out of business at approximately the same time. 
Why? Businesses are generally set-up to fill a need in society or as an outlet of creativity, both of which are bounded by the amount of venture-capital that will back them, and from what I've seen, VC investment is the cap on business creation, not anything else.
SlackmasterK
SlackmasterK
I write my OWN blogging engines
I don't have to worry about the stock market. 

I rent and have a fixed rent bill.
I don't have any major investments - I'm still young and naïve.
I'm single with no family.
71% of my income is disposable.

... Though it's recently occurred to me that now is an exceedingly good time to invest my 71% in the stock market.
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