Thank you Mark Shuttleworth and a slight PC/OS update

I find most interesting in the link you posted the claim that Microsoft is giving away Windows XP for free to netbook OEMs. It seems Microsoft will go to all ends (including harming themselves) to keep Linux off of computers. Ubuntu is self-sustaining even being free of charge, but will Windows be? I really really doubt it. This is a dangerous game Microsoft is playing.

Netbooks ARE the surprise attack. No time in history has Linux desktop had such broad adoption, and it's all thanks to the netbooks. In fact netbooks are a market that started with Linux, the first Asus EEEs were Linux only. Linux was chosen because it can run on low powered hardware and it lacks license fees, both critical to maintaining the low price of netbooks. Microsoft had to come running to Asus, not the other way around.

It's Microsoft that's trying to catch up here, and it wouldn't surprise me if they did give Windows XP away for free to try to dominate netbooks like they do other PCs. Seeing how netbooks are very tight margined, I have no reason to doubt Shuttleworth on this. Even a free Windows might offer Microsoft some respite, but it's not going to stop Linux on the netbook by any means.

Freescale is going to put out ARM netbooks are coming in April, ~$200, running Ubuntu most likely. This will be huge. And Microsoft could pay Freescale $100 per install for all it matters, it wouldn't do any good WinNT doesn't run on ARM.

Lets just see if Microsoft will have an ARM port of Windows 7, and somehow get all their ISVs to make ARM ports, while justifying license fees. I don't see it happening. Good luck anyway! But anyway Ubuntu already fully runs on ARM - all software inclusive.

Well yeah that's probably better description. I clarified my original post.

I would argue that MIT to be exact made conditions possible for a netbook. I really think the OLPC showed there is serious demand for small, inexpensive computers which can surf the Internet. And Asus saw it. I would argue that the OLPC while being mostly a failure, "inspired" the EEE PCs which turned out to be huge success. Linux was chosen probably because OLPC choose it too, but probably also because using Linux kept costs down at let them meet their $299 pricepoint. Again, these computers are explicitly designed to be kind of gateways to the Internet, and there is no way you can tell me Windows has any advantage here.

Netbooks are also interesting in the fact that the OEMs are actually spending considerable effort to customize the user interface on their machines. Like HP and the such actually hired software engineers to help write their Linux-based netbook OS. This is almost unheard of anymore except for a company like Apple. We might see much more vertical integration from OEMs in the future. Really I believe if Windows marketshare breaks down it won't be by one operating system but a myriad of different ones coming from the OEMs themselves.

Well I think the OLPC was the "first" netbook in a way, although it wasn't for sale. It's clear to me that the EEE PC was inspired by it.

Well you are free to your opinion.

Netbooks really got Microsoft with their pants down holding up an OS on life support that was suppose to be long dead. Windows 7, the savior. Windows 7, it'll fix everything. It's seems to be the big promise. But all I can really talk about is right now. Right now Windows sales are doing poorly, Microsoft is out 5000 employeees and MSFT stock is just dismal (Apple is doing just fine by the way, still hiring). Right now we got a new president here in the USA using the words "open source" a little too much and a little too fast. But we will see. Windows 7 is suppose to be the life saver which will maintain the eroding Windows status quo. All I will say: we will see. I have no crystal ball and neither do you.


"Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces smart people into thinking they can't lose." -- Bill Gates

And with that inspirational quote, I am out of this thread! I think I might get a short break at least this place cool down, hopefully Channel 9 will still be here when I get back.

I don't think it's ridiculous at all. Microsoft would rather gave away Windows for free then have Linux get any gains in the market. That actually makes a bit of sense. Anyway Mark Shuttleworth is probably in a better position to talk about this kind of stuff then anyone here, since he actually does deals with OEMs himself. So I wouldn't know for sure if he is right, but I believe him.