I think that Dvorak (for once) is right on the money.  I always knew that MS was easily distracted by anything new and shiny, but seeing the catalogue of failed and abandoned projects was a real eye-opener. 

I think they can carry on with the two cash cows they have, but I think their best days as industry leaders are behind them. They've been chasing the likes of Google and Apple for a few years now, and we have yet to see anything come through because of it.

Microsoft lacks the razor-sharp focus of Apple (which is why Cupertino apparently owns 90% of the market for machines costing over $1000) and the nimbleness of Google.

A shame, but inevitable.

Well, you have named a lot of projects there, but given Microsoft's track record, most of them will end up on the junk pile (usually after folk have put in quite a lot of work 'testing' them). At the end of the day, it all seems to come back to Windows and Office.

And it isn't a question of mindshare. It would be fine if MS was still growing even if only businesses used their stuff, but this doesn't appear to be the case. At the end of the day, all the companies are in the same economy. Apple is growing, MS is shrinking, and I think the reason for that is that, as you say, Apple has to fight tooth and nail to stay alive. I hope they stay in that state for many, many years because once they are over that then they'll just sit back on their market share until they begin their inevitable decline – just like Microsoft.

I'm not saying that the company is going to go bust, or that Apple will overtake Windows as the dominant desktop platform; what I am saying is that they're now settling back into a comfortable background role, like IBM. Major steps forward in the industry will be made younger, much more visionary outfits.

Well, okay let's call them 'ventures', in which case they've had very few 'ventures' that they've managed to turn into a successful product (one that actually makes money).

And the point of IE was to protect the market share, not to make a profit. Fair enough, but again this just makes my point. Once they had destroyed Netscape, they sat back on their laurels and let the browser languish, failing to see the threat from Firefox until it was too late. 

Bending over to the EU?

One of the reasons that MS's profits were hit so hard was the amount of money they've had to fork out in fines etc. Now with the EU being the judge and the jury in these cases, they really don't seem to have much of a choice. The browser screen thing is stupid beyond belief, but it may save them another year of being pick-pocketed by the EU.

Interesting point. The problem is that MS is not trying anything new. They are jumping into the market after someone else has done the groundwork ... and they are still failing to get the venture to take off.

How so?

When Apple was heading for bankruptcy, Jobs was asked what he would do if he was still in charge. He said that he would milk the Mac for all its worth then move onto the next big thing.

That was the plan fifteen years ago, and it seems to be going very well.

The EU will just move the goalposts to rake the money in.