Posted By: jsampsonPC | Apr 26th @ 9:38 PM
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jsampsonPC
jsampsonPC
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I felt like writing a small application tonight to project populations over time. Problem is, the more I think about population dynamics, the more confounding this project becomes.

I'm thinking, well if we have an average of 3 kids per two parents every 50 years, those kids will then do as their parents did and have an average of 3 kids per 50 years. But then at 70 years the parents are dead.

This application wouldn't consider terminal illnesses or diseases. That would make things a bit more complicated I'm sure.

Just curious how you guys would do this.
W3bbo
W3bbo
The Master of Baiters
You can probably do it with a (hopefully trivial) differential equation which can be integrated to simple sum.

...but my calculus isn't that good (my syllabus only covers population growth without any limiing factors), but I think this page covers it.

I tried writing a simple summing expression with a bunch of addition/subtraction operations in it, but I can't express your model right.
Dr Herbie
Dr Herbie
Half the population have below average IQ
Wikipedia has the formula for the Verhulst equation that is the standard one used for population growth.

There are two constants, K (the carrying capacity) and r (the growth rate).
K signifies the maximum number of individuals that the enivronment will allow (due to limite resources like food and space).
r signifies the speed of population growth (how many offspring are produced).

Ecologists define K species as those that have a steady population size, with few offspring and usually a long lfe span (like elephants), while r species have fluctuating populations and large numbers of offspring, like ruderal weeds (e.g. poppies) or fruit-flies.

The model species you describe is probably a K species, so I'd start with a high K (possibly a few hundred thousand if you modelling global population) and a low r (I don't know, how about 0.01?).


Herbie
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