Emre Kiciman: Reliable Computing for Large Scale Distributed Systems

Comment removed at user's request.
I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
SecretSoftware wrote:I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
Charles wrote:
However, your conclusion, which appears to miss an understandably implicit point: data created as a direct result of your interactions with the system, how you use it and how it is capable of making your intentions achievable in a predictable and reliable way, makes proving or disproving the hypothesis empirically impossible(we think we may be on to something theoretically, but theory is purely abstract).
Massif wrote:
Charles wrote:
However, your conclusion, which appears to miss an understandably implicit point: data created as a direct result of your interactions with the system, how you use it and how it is capable of making your intentions achievable in a predictable and reliable way, makes proving or disproving the hypothesis empirically impossible(we think we may be on to something theoretically, but theory is purely abstract).
hate to be pedantic here Charles (what am I talking about, I'm a geek - I live for pedantry!) but it's impossible to prove anything empirically.
You can verify your hypothesis, but you cannot prove it, as in order to prove a hypothesis empirically you'd have to observe all possible permutations and outcomes, (and as you're being empirical you wouldn't be allowed to inform your observations from your theory, as you haven't proved your theory yet! So you'd have to literally observe all possible permutations ever ever ever.)
Charles wrote:
SecretSoftware wrote: I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
Intersting analysis. The hypothesis(first paragraph) is a compelling one. However, your conclusion, which appears to miss an understandably implicit point: data created as a direct result of your interactions with the system, how you use it and how it is capable of making your intentions achievable in a predictable and reliable way, makes proving or disproving the hypothesis empirically impossible(we think we may be on to something theoretically, but theory is purely abstract).
It's nice to see that people are beginning to realize that Vista is a new OS, one that is also intelligent: composed of subsystems that are capable of not only learning, but also prone to interacting with newly gained knowledge in a cybernetic way.
Vista sows the seeds for a future Windows that becomes not only intelligent, reliable, safe, performant, usable, but also predictable, composable, homeostatic. Evolutionary acceleration of Windows will remain static without high use of the system by real people.
C
Charles wrote:
Massif wrote:
Charles wrote:
However, your conclusion, which appears to miss an understandably implicit point: data created as a direct result of your interactions with the system, how you use it and how it is capable of making your intentions achievable in a predictable and reliable way, makes proving or disproving the hypothesis empirically impossible(we think we may be on to something theoretically, but theory is purely abstract).
hate to be pedantic here Charles (what am I talking about, I'm a geek - I live for pedantry!) but it's impossible to prove anything empirically.
You can verify your hypothesis, but you cannot prove it, as in order to prove a hypothesis empirically you'd have to observe all possible permutations and outcomes, (and as you're being empirical you wouldn't be allowed to inform your observations from your theory, as you haven't proved your theory yet! So you'd have to literally observe all possible permutations ever ever ever.)
In science, a Theory (with a capital T) is another way of expressing an Hypothesis that has been "proven" due to direct observations, or measurements, that show the conjecture to be factual.
Massif wrote:That's pretty much my understanding of Laws, although I'm a little wooly on Laws.
If memory serves, Laws also have to be consistent under all conditions. i.e. if some set of values (the mass of two bodies, and their seperation for example) then some other effect (the gravitational attraction between them) is always the same.
But you still can't (logically) prove anything empirically. Seriously, in fact it's nigh-on impossible to (logically) prove anything at all, in terms of real world behaviour. (The most "proven" set of laws in Physics is called Quantum-Electro Dynamics, and even then they're only 99.9999999% (can't remember the exact numbers) sure it's true.)
If you want to dispute that, then go and read a really good book called "What is this thing called science?" I think the author is called Alan Chambers, but I could be wrong. It'll show you that in actual fact Theorys are established not by proof, but by everyone failing to disprove them.
Zeo wrote:Interesting Conversation. I'd love to hear more from Tjreed Hoek about his thoughs on Areo in the shell, and his thoughts behind the design.
Great video tho.
Massif wrote:...Theorys are established not by proof, but by everyone failing to disprove them.
jsampsonPC wrote:
Massif wrote: ...Theorys are established not by proof, but by everyone failing to disprove them.
That's not entirely true either. If it were, I could invent ideas all day and have you busy disproving them, or trying to. I could claim that with my mind I can make desks float around the room, and if you spent the next 30 years trying to disprove that, that wouldn't mean that my theory has any credibility.
It comes down to probability too. For instance, in math we have infinite theorems such as "All even numbers will be divisible by 2". Now, I cannot prove that...why? Because I have not tried every possible even number to see if it is indeed divisible by two. But, the probability is so astronomically high that this is considered a fact.
A theory doesn't get accepted just on the fact that it's been around for a while - it's got to demonstrate its predictive power to the masses.
And just think! If I'd made a comment about Linux, instead of one about the logical impossiblity of empirically proving something - where would we be now?
Sorry, for derailing the thread, you can have it back now.
SecretSoftware wrote:I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
Massif wrote:
jsampsonPC wrote:
Massif wrote: ...Theorys are established not by proof, but by everyone failing to disprove them.
That's not entirely true either. If it were, I could invent ideas all day and have you busy disproving them, or trying to. I could claim that with my mind I can make desks float around the room, and if you spent the next 30 years trying to disprove that, that wouldn't mean that my theory has any credibility.
It comes down to probability too. For instance, in math we have infinite theorems such as "All even numbers will be divisible by 2". Now, I cannot prove that...why? Because I have not tried every possible even number to see if it is indeed divisible by two. But, the probability is so astronomically high that this is considered a fact.
A theory doesn't get accepted just on the fact that it's been around for a while - it's got to demonstrate its predictive power to the masses.
Ok, for a start - in Maths theorys can be proven. Maths isn't a science per se. it's a branch of logic. As such it is constructed of a limited set of concrete rules, and things can be proven absolutely true one way or another. (But never EVER are they proven empirically. Fermat's last theorem had empirical-ish proofs which went up to hugely large numbers, but it wasn't considered proven until a general proof was established.)
I defend my statement, Theorys are establish by everyone failing to disprove them. Your "I could make desks move with my mind" theory would last a very short time, scant seconds after someone says "prove it".
Now your last sentence is much much more relevant. In science, the measure of how good a theory is comes down to two things: "Does it explain what we already know better than the current theory?" and "Does it predict something new?"
The second part is crucial, as that's where theories derive their strength. If a new theory is simply made to fit the facts, and doesn't provide any new predictions it's considered a rubbish theory. The best theories create weird new predicitions, (like Quantum Mechanics did - really crazy predictions about certain things.) that would be really easy to prove wrong. It's simply that no-one has which means they've been accepted.
As a quick example, Einstein's general relativity predicited that the position of the stars would appear to change when the sun was near them. Now you had to have a solar eclipse to see the stars, because he said they'd be the ones really near the sun. But still, a pretty easy theory to shoot holes in - "the stars move! you're mad!" And yet when they measured it, he was right - General Relativity had its first proof and the rest is History (and Gravity, and Space as well! Boom boom!)
Massif wrote:...I defend my statement, Theorys are establish by everyone failing to disprove them. Your "I could make desks move with my mind" theory would last a very short time, scant seconds after someone says "prove it"...
staceyw wrote:
SecretSoftware wrote: I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
I am not following you here. AFAICT, Vista has a ton of new improvements and brand new features, but it is not a total rewrite of Server 2003R2 from scratch (check me on this Charles). You still have win32 and existing core and code bases. It would be interesting to get a Swag on percent of new code and percent of code that has changed. Maybe an easier number is what percent of 2003 has *not changed?
I am also going to enjoy the new lock primitives in Vista, such a Reader/Writer locks, Condition variables, Lazy-init, Improved Thread Pool, new InterlockedXXX functions, and application deadlock detection apis. When you start adding all the stuff up, there is a ton of hard-core goodness going into this product (this is the very hard-work stuff you don't really see).
jsampsonPC wrote:
Massif wrote: ...I defend my statement, Theorys are establish by everyone failing to disprove them. Your "I could make desks move with my mind" theory would last a very short time, scant seconds after someone says "prove it"...
You just proved my point. A theory isn't established simply because somebody cannot disprove it - and you demonstrated that when you said "Prove it". A theory is established not for fighting off critics, but for affirming, or explaining something. So you cannot say, "Theorys are established by everyone failing to dispove them", and then counter my claim that I can float desks by saing, "Prove it". Because by your own words, I dont have to prove it, you how to disprove it. And if you can't, then the theory that I can float desks is possible. But that is nonsense, of course
SecretSoftware wrote:
staceyw wrote:
SecretSoftware wrote: I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
I am not following you here. AFAICT, Vista has a ton of new improvements and brand new features, but it is not a total rewrite of Server 2003R2 from scratch (check me on this Charles). You still have win32 and existing core and code bases. It would be interesting to get a Swag on percent of new code and percent of code that has changed. Maybe an easier number is what percent of 2003 has *not changed?
I am also going to enjoy the new lock primitives in Vista, such a Reader/Writer locks, Condition variables, Lazy-init, Improved Thread Pool, new InterlockedXXX functions, and application deadlock detection apis. When you start adding all the stuff up, there is a ton of hard-core goodness going into this product (this is the very hard-work stuff you don't really see).
Its totally new. written from scratch, or in some cases some win32 were replicated in new code. Old code was archived for the most part. So its totally new OS. Just like Going from DOS to 95 with new implementations. That is my information that I have. Its like rewriting win32 (preserve the APIs and features, but different implementation in code to fit in with the rest of the stuff).
...
SecretSoftware wrote:I gather from this video, that MS went to the direction of writing new OS (VISTA), because the current model in XP and 2003, is unupdatable, because the code base is old and is not organized in a way to allow for future improvements. SO when he said that Vista is "a mile stone for us", he meant that Vista will be a new platform OS that will enable them to move to the future without the strings that were in the previous implementations of things in XP and 2003.
So when Windows Vienna comes, its going to be breath-taking. That is why I am not so much excited about vista, but about what is going to come after vista as a progress ontop of the new foundations that were implemented into Vista. That is why I compare this stage as going from DOS to Win95.
When it’s first encountered, the UAC dialog informs the user/admin, then sandboxes/partitions the application.
writetoalok wrote:41 Minutes of watching Mr. Holecek with his rant about Windows shell is going to make me so bored, that if it happens again, I may be turned off Channel 9 for ever.
What about some demos guys? And what happened to those interesting questions. Thank goodness, I knew how to fast forward on WMP.
malmer wrote:Can we please try and stay on topic. Take the discussion about meanings of words to an other place. Now back to the topic:
I would surely like to have more customization ability of the UI in vista. Why not release a tool for modifying the bitmaps which form the basis of the UI. Atleast don't encrypt and hide them away in some signed dll. Just put them as resources so that one can edit them with a resource editor. Then enthusiasts can atleast be saved from the texas style drop-shadows which are way to big.
If the dropshadows aren't bitmaps but created on the fly then give us strength, size and bluriness sliders. PLEASE!!! Pretty please with sugar on top. Maybe as a powertoy or as registryvalues or something. Please! Save us who don't want dropshadows from the photoshop play-land.