Yeah I agree, I think the (some people would say "marketing") failure of Vista is a big reason why Microsoft is doing so bad. Vista really helped Linux for the first time in it's history get a foothold on OEM computers, it wouldn't have been possible without
But really Microsoft primary mode of business is maintaining a monopoly marketshare, and that looks like it starting to break down. Without a monopoly could Microsoft actually survive? I don't think so.
i just look at a very simple equation:
windows 7 should take after:
1. the most successful and widely used OS in history
2. A market failure
it is indeed closer (blue is back - sort of) but 7 is still too vista-ish