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The Windows era is over

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  • User profile image
    jamie

    magicalclick said:

    Anyway, MS is failing behind on some of the stuff indeed. Like Windows Mobile / Phone is rather weak, hope 7 will change it. And IE is rather weak, I really really really hope they change UI, it is freaking IE6 UI. And there seems to be innovations around the world when MS doesn't seem to able to compete or make their own market.

     

    And this may be biased, but, it seems like people who works for MS and left are unhappy about the working envirnment. It lacks teamwork when manager and employees are pit against each other. And it seems the company lacks mentorship. Certainly people who can help themselves are great, but, at one point, co-operation is much more effective. This is what I heard as MS doesn't usually have a clear goal and focus on their stuff. And I think it is getting more visible as I see a lot of MS stuff are floating around for nothing.

     

    I do think MS is more like IBM now. hope they get their groove back

    probably posted already but - this was off slashdot (today)

     

    http://www.infoworld.com/print/125118

  • User profile image
    Ray7

    Mmm.

     

    I pretty much agree with everything he said; probably because I've been saying the same thing for months. I think if we actually take a moment to read the article, we'll find that he's saying:

     

    The Windows era is over

     

    not

     

    Microsoft is dead

     

    Because that is not going to happen.

     

    Wilcox said:
    Microsoft lumbers along, avoiding risks, clinging to Office and Windows revenues.  Meanwhile, companies without Microsoft's existing monopoly-bound customers drive change, and they are willing to take risks. The mobile-to-cloud service platform is to the PC what the PC was to the mainframe: It extends computational and informational utility to more people and places -- and for lower cost. The Windows era is giving way to the anytime, anywhere, on-anything era. The most dynamic innovations are occurring outside the Windows monopoly.

     

    Whether we like it or not, this is where things are headed. The connected mobile client. Without the Windows monopoly to ride on, MS tends to flounder quite badly.

     

    Wilcox said:
    Microsoft has a much bigger problem. Competition from without is to be expected. Competition from once loyal partners is something else. Nokia and Intel are partnering on MeeGo, which the companies plan to bring to mobile devices. In March I declared the end to the Wintel (Windows-Intel) hegemony when asking: "Which is eviler? Apple, Facebook and Google?" -- all Microsoft competitors. Microsoft can no longer count on Intel's loyalty, which has been in doubt since Apple shipped the first Intel-based Macs in 2006.

    But matters are worse. Compaq was Microsoft's most important partner. In the 1980s, Compaq popularized the IBM PC clone, which allowed Microsoft to broadly license DOS and later Windows. HP assumed the loyal partner role after acquiring Compaq, particularly for servers. Now, because of the Palm acquisition, HP is a turncoat.

     

    All true. The partners are now forging their own path. But Wilcox does appear to have forgotten one important detail; HP hasn't stopped making Windows PCs. In fact, no one has. They'll carry on building them for as long as they can turn some kind of profit.

     

    Wilcox said:
    I'm making my proclamation today that the Windows era is over. But perhaps it's slightly premature. The defining moment, where people look back and say, "Ah, ha!", likely will be when Apple's market capitalization exceeds Microsoft's. As I write, $520 million separates the companies. How unbelievable is that?

     

    [Update: Almost as soon as I posted, Apple's market cap exceeded Microsoft's -- $225.98 billion to $225.32 billion.]

     

    Now remember that no one is predicting Microsoft's death. As I've often said, they'll settle back into a more than comfortable retirement as did IBM by focussing on business software and services. The newer interesting stuff will be handled by the kids.

     

    Won't ever happen? Well, I used to think that. But then I also didn't think there would be a time when Apple's would be worth more than Microsoft.

     

     

     

  • User profile image
    mstefan

    allenf said:
    figuerres said:
    *snip*

    Quick Question:

    Name me 3 applications that are sold by Microsoft that you install and use daily/weekly on Windows?*

     

    *NOT COUNTING Office or Visual Studio, Expression Studio would be a stetch too.... IE doesn't count as it's "bundled" with Windows....same goes for Movie Maker/Windows Live Messenger...

     

    Seriously....you have to think really really hard to come up with 3 MS applications that you use daily/weekly and LOVE that are built on Windows.

     

    Then look at the Iphone.....I can't count how many Apple and non Apple applications I've installed....it's literally DOZENS.

     

    Windows might not be dead....but it's dead BORING.

    That's absolutely brilliant. I understand that you enjoy the variety of exciting iFart apps available to you, but discounting Office, Visual Studio and the rest of the software on your "they don't count" list is just ridiculous.

  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    jamie said:
    magicalclick said:
    *snip*

    probably posted already but - this was off slashdot (today)

     

    http://www.infoworld.com/print/125118

    LOL, I think that article is already 3 years too late. Wink

    I hope MS learned the refresh cycles of a company. Legacy is important, but, refresh is necessary to clean up the overhead. What they need to learn is how to refresh their product gracefully and with great focus and precision. Sometimes they are really aimless without clear goal. Kind of werid how this worked for years in MS.

     

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
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  • User profile image
    Ray7

    magicalclick said:
    jamie said:
    *snip*

    LOL, I think that article is already 3 years too late. Wink

    I hope MS learned the refresh cycles of a company. Legacy is important, but, refresh is necessary to clean up the overhead. What they need to learn is how to refresh their product gracefully and with great focus and precision. Sometimes they are really aimless without clear goal. Kind of werid how this worked for years in MS.

     

    It worked because they had a monopoly and the competition couldn't get a look in. They could screw up as much as they wanted and no one really noticed.

  • User profile image
    Shining Arcanine

    Dovella said:
    turrican said:
    *snip*

    Windows 7 Thrives as Mac OS X and Linux Are Weak Competitors 

     

    IE9 is coming

    WP7 is coming 

    Natal is coming

    Silverlight is Rock

    Office 2010 is Rock

     

    Joe Wilcox is Idiot?

    When Rome fell in 476, there were still Roman troops in many parts of Europe, everyone still spoke Latin and life for the average person continued as it always had. It is hard to put a date on when something's reign ends, but when it does, many of its effects can still be felt for a long time afterward. Microsoft reached its peak under Windows XP. It won the browser wars, dominated all forms of popular computing and whatever it wanted to do, no matter how unpopular, it could do with minimal resistance. Those days have ended.

     

    Smaller, more portable forms of computing are displacing the traditional forms and Microsoft can no longer push its vision of computing onto others. This is precisely why contrary to Microsoft's wishes, the underlying OS is becoming less and less important and many important services and programs are moving to the internet and mobile devices. This is also why Microsoft is finding it increasingly difficult to ignore open standards and is being dragged into compliance with them, despite kicking and screaming all the way.

     

    The only things left in Microsoft's favor are Windows Media Center and gaming, yet with time, I expect even these advantages will fade away. Events have been put into motion by Apple and Valve to take gaming away from Microsoft and the only advantages Microsoft has with Windows Media Center (cable cards, extenders and netflix) are not things that it can expect to keep indefinitely.

     

    Lastly, I would like to observe that the best and brightest minds no longer have any interest in working for Microsoft. Many of them are looking elsewhere, Google especially and Google represents the direct opposite of Microsoft's vision.

  • User profile image
    reeb4ever

    I'm a large volume trader in the stock market. I recently bought MSFT and I am very, very disappointed. Not only in their market cap loss to AAPL, but in their overall performance.

     

    I am also very disappointed that they couldn't keep Robbie Bach and J. Allard.

    I am happy that there were no chairs thrown or death threats at their departure however. Perhaps some animals have been tamed at the company in the past 4 years.

     

    There has been other troubling news of the company:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pequot-capital-settles-with-sec-for-28-million-2010-05-27-115400?dist=countdown

     

    It turns out that there were large hedge funds insider trading MSFT right after the .com bust. The same type of hedge funds that did the dutch Facebook investment with Microsoft corp for 2 parts of 250M each a year or so ago.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT

     

    Sir William of Redmond is dumping MSFT at an alarming rate these days.

     

    I am considering dumping the MSFT share block to clean my hands when MSFT tops out at $30 in the next coming weeks or months(if not I will dump it at market prices in desperation after a few weeks wait). Dividends or not, it's not a good investment anymore.

     

    At $15 PPS last year MSFT was OK even though other tech companies more than quadrupiled in the same time frame such as Rackspace in comparison, but I think even Bill Gates knows that it's high time to fly.

     

    In economic terms, big money when it's fully invested like Microsoft is dead. You need growth, and MSFT has none. They are shrinking if anything.

     

    I had lunch with 3 Microsoft developers at Google I/0 2010. They didn't know who I was until lunch was over. I had an interesting conversation to say the least.

  • User profile image
    turrican

    reeb4ever said:

    I'm a large volume trader in the stock market. I recently bought MSFT and I am very, very disappointed. Not only in their market cap loss to AAPL, but in their overall performance.

     

    I am also very disappointed that they couldn't keep Robbie Bach and J. Allard.

    I am happy that there were no chairs thrown or death threats at their departure however. Perhaps some animals have been tamed at the company in the past 4 years.

     

    There has been other troubling news of the company:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pequot-capital-settles-with-sec-for-28-million-2010-05-27-115400?dist=countdown

     

    It turns out that there were large hedge funds insider trading MSFT right after the .com bust. The same type of hedge funds that did the dutch Facebook investment with Microsoft corp for 2 parts of 250M each a year or so ago.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT

     

    Sir William of Redmond is dumping MSFT at an alarming rate these days.

     

    I am considering dumping the MSFT share block to clean my hands when MSFT tops out at $30 in the next coming weeks or months(if not I will dump it at market prices in desperation after a few weeks wait). Dividends or not, it's not a good investment anymore.

     

    At $15 PPS last year MSFT was OK even though other tech companies more than quadrupiled in the same time frame such as Rackspace in comparison, but I think even Bill Gates knows that it's high time to fly.

     

    In economic terms, big money when it's fully invested like Microsoft is dead. You need growth, and MSFT has none. They are shrinking if anything.

     

    I had lunch with 3 Microsoft developers at Google I/0 2010. They didn't know who I was until lunch was over. I had an interesting conversation to say the least.

    Talking down the stock so you can buy back in hey?

    Smiley

  • User profile image
    turrican

    Shining Arcanine said:
    Dovella said:
    *snip*

    When Rome fell in 476, there were still Roman troops in many parts of Europe, everyone still spoke Latin and life for the average person continued as it always had. It is hard to put a date on when something's reign ends, but when it does, many of its effects can still be felt for a long time afterward. Microsoft reached its peak under Windows XP. It won the browser wars, dominated all forms of popular computing and whatever it wanted to do, no matter how unpopular, it could do with minimal resistance. Those days have ended.

     

    Smaller, more portable forms of computing are displacing the traditional forms and Microsoft can no longer push its vision of computing onto others. This is precisely why contrary to Microsoft's wishes, the underlying OS is becoming less and less important and many important services and programs are moving to the internet and mobile devices. This is also why Microsoft is finding it increasingly difficult to ignore open standards and is being dragged into compliance with them, despite kicking and screaming all the way.

     

    The only things left in Microsoft's favor are Windows Media Center and gaming, yet with time, I expect even these advantages will fade away. Events have been put into motion by Apple and Valve to take gaming away from Microsoft and the only advantages Microsoft has with Windows Media Center (cable cards, extenders and netflix) are not things that it can expect to keep indefinitely.

     

    Lastly, I would like to observe that the best and brightest minds no longer have any interest in working for Microsoft. Many of them are looking elsewhere, Google especially and Google represents the direct opposite of Microsoft's vision.

    You need to watch this fully :

    That is part 1 out of 10.

    Smiley

     

    It answers all your points regarding the new devices. It was very educating.

  • User profile image
    turrican

    reeb4ever said:

    I'm a large volume trader in the stock market. I recently bought MSFT and I am very, very disappointed. Not only in their market cap loss to AAPL, but in their overall performance.

     

    I am also very disappointed that they couldn't keep Robbie Bach and J. Allard.

    I am happy that there were no chairs thrown or death threats at their departure however. Perhaps some animals have been tamed at the company in the past 4 years.

     

    There has been other troubling news of the company:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pequot-capital-settles-with-sec-for-28-million-2010-05-27-115400?dist=countdown

     

    It turns out that there were large hedge funds insider trading MSFT right after the .com bust. The same type of hedge funds that did the dutch Facebook investment with Microsoft corp for 2 parts of 250M each a year or so ago.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT

     

    Sir William of Redmond is dumping MSFT at an alarming rate these days.

     

    I am considering dumping the MSFT share block to clean my hands when MSFT tops out at $30 in the next coming weeks or months(if not I will dump it at market prices in desperation after a few weeks wait). Dividends or not, it's not a good investment anymore.

     

    At $15 PPS last year MSFT was OK even though other tech companies more than quadrupiled in the same time frame such as Rackspace in comparison, but I think even Bill Gates knows that it's high time to fly.

     

    In economic terms, big money when it's fully invested like Microsoft is dead. You need growth, and MSFT has none. They are shrinking if anything.

     

    I had lunch with 3 Microsoft developers at Google I/0 2010. They didn't know who I was until lunch was over. I had an interesting conversation to say the least.

    It isn't only Microsoft suffering by the way, you know the economy isn't that great when WalM. has to drop prices ........ "Wal-Mart makes splashy price cuts to boost sales" http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100529/world/us_wal_mart_price_cuts

  • User profile image
    Ray7

    turrican said:
    reeb4ever said:
    *snip*

    It isn't only Microsoft suffering by the way, you know the economy isn't that great when WalM. has to drop prices ........ "Wal-Mart makes splashy price cuts to boost sales" http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100529/world/us_wal_mart_price_cuts

    The thing is that Apple is in the exact same market and so is Google. Thinking back to when Jobs went on stage and thanked Gates for a handout that wouldn't have kept the company afloat for more than a day, I cannot imagine what has gone wrong at Redmond for Apple to be worth more than Microsoft today.

     

    Well, yes I can.

     

    It is rare for a company with a monopoly to find itself in such a position…unless the monopoly has begun to lose its relevance.

     

  • User profile image
    turrican

    Ray7 said:
    turrican said:
    *snip*

    The thing is that Apple is in the exact same market and so is Google. Thinking back to when Jobs went on stage and thanked Gates for a handout that wouldn't have kept the company afloat for more than a day, I cannot imagine what has gone wrong at Redmond for Apple to be worth more than Microsoft today.

     

    Well, yes I can.

     

    It is rare for a company with a monopoly to find itself in such a position…unless the monopoly has begun to lose its relevance.

     

    First of all, they are not in the same market at all. Microsoft is in business + OS mostly, Google is in search and Apple is a niche market specialized on luxury items so to speak.

     

    Secondly, back in the 80s Apple was also "bigger" than Microsoft in terms of stock price. Comparing stock price of companies doesn't say much at all about them in terms of if they are "going going gone" or not. Sometimes, the stock price go down even on a good thing because of profit taking. Sometimes, people have to sell good stocks to answer to margin calls, it's very complex.

     

    Last and not the least... your abuse of the word "monopoly" is horrible. Microsoft is not a monopoly and never was. Are we living in 1984 suddenly where words have wrong meaning? ...perhaps we are on second though... war is peace. ( pre-emtive war to keep the peace lolz )

  • User profile image
    Ray7

    turrican said:
    First of all, they are not in the same market at all. Microsoft is in business + OS mostly, Google is in search and Apple is a niche market specialized on luxury items so to speak.

     

    Then why did you point out Wal-Mart as an example? The fact that Apple is in a niche market specialising in luxury items means that in a recession they should be performing worse than MS; in terms of growth this does not appear to be the case.

     

    turrican said:
    Secondly, back in the 80s Apple was also "bigger" than Microsoft in terms of stock price. Comparing stock price of companies doesn't say much at all about them in terms of if they are "going going gone" or not. Sometimes, the stock price go down even on a good thing because of profit taking. Sometimes, people have to sell good stocks to answer to margin calls, it's very complex.

     

    If we were just talking about stock price then Apple would have been 'bigger' than Microsoft for some years now (and not just in the eighties). Why these figures are a milestone is that Apple has surpassed MS's market cap just has it has surpassed Microsoft in growth and influence. 

     

    turrican said:
    Last and not the least... your abuse of the word "monopoly" is horrible. Microsoft is not a monopoly and never was. Are we living in 1984 suddenly where words have wrong meaning? ...

    By any definition, Microsoft had a monopoly in operating systems because they had over 90% of the market. I'm afraid which ever way you slice it, that is a monopoly.

    I have no ideas why you're getting on your high horse about it though; there is nothing inherently wrong with having a monopoly; it's what most commercial entities strive for.  

    Whenever I see any post that describes Microsoft as a 'convicted monopolist' I immediately stop reading because the poster has no idea what they're talking about. Microsoft was never a 'convicted monopolist'; there is no such crime.

     

     

     

  • User profile image
    Shining Arcanine

    reeb4ever said:

    I'm a large volume trader in the stock market. I recently bought MSFT and I am very, very disappointed. Not only in their market cap loss to AAPL, but in their overall performance.

     

    I am also very disappointed that they couldn't keep Robbie Bach and J. Allard.

    I am happy that there were no chairs thrown or death threats at their departure however. Perhaps some animals have been tamed at the company in the past 4 years.

     

    There has been other troubling news of the company:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pequot-capital-settles-with-sec-for-28-million-2010-05-27-115400?dist=countdown

     

    It turns out that there were large hedge funds insider trading MSFT right after the .com bust. The same type of hedge funds that did the dutch Facebook investment with Microsoft corp for 2 parts of 250M each a year or so ago.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT

     

    Sir William of Redmond is dumping MSFT at an alarming rate these days.

     

    I am considering dumping the MSFT share block to clean my hands when MSFT tops out at $30 in the next coming weeks or months(if not I will dump it at market prices in desperation after a few weeks wait). Dividends or not, it's not a good investment anymore.

     

    At $15 PPS last year MSFT was OK even though other tech companies more than quadrupiled in the same time frame such as Rackspace in comparison, but I think even Bill Gates knows that it's high time to fly.

     

    In economic terms, big money when it's fully invested like Microsoft is dead. You need growth, and MSFT has none. They are shrinking if anything.

     

    I had lunch with 3 Microsoft developers at Google I/0 2010. They didn't know who I was until lunch was over. I had an interesting conversation to say the least.

    About trading stocks, ownerships of stocks is an attempt to control a company and never was meant as a way to make money. The only money to be made in stocks usually comes from other people's expense, so complaining about how  you do not make anything off a particular stock is absurd when you never complain about making money that some else lost.

  • User profile image
    reeb4ever

    Shining Arcanine said:
    reeb4ever said:
    *snip*

    About trading stocks, ownerships of stocks is an attempt to control a company and never was meant as a way to make money. The only money to be made in stocks usually comes from other people's expense, so complaining about how  you do not make anything off a particular stock is absurd when you never complain about making money that some else lost.

    Dividends?

     

    Generic Forum Image

     

    Microsoft hasn't paid a decent dividend to it's investors since 2004 after it's last split.
    And somebody suggested they donate money to BP?

     

    The Microsoft of today is on the decline.

     

    "About trading stocks, ownerships of stocks is an attempt to control a company and never was meant as a way to make money"

     

    Warren Buffet would disagree. So would I.

    I made plenty of money off of the stock market in 2009. Many will make plenty of money off of the recent dip due to worried and undecided Europeans, including myself.

     

    "Talking down the stock so you can buy back in hey?"

     

    Not at all. I will simply sell off and buy something more profitable like a good investor should. Real Estate Investment Trusts are forced to pay dividends when they make a profit. Most of them have written off all they can write off and should return to profitability in 2011. If they are still in business that is. REIT's are a much more attractive dividend earner than MSFT. MSFT has turned into a socialist company with socialist goals and that's been reflected in it's decline.

     

    Bill Gates wouldn't be selling off otherwise. He doesn't need the money. Unless there's something that we don't know.

     

    Some of these ultra rich VCs that everybody looks up to are showing that they were just at the right place at the right time after all.

    http://www.autoblog.com/2010/05/30/teslas-elon-musk-says-hes-broke/

     

    If you are a programmer, you probably make more money per month than Elon Musk(who sold off Paypal/x.com). That's saying something.

     

    Not that it has anything to do with Microsoft, but I am actually looking towards investment in American based software and tech companies with American ideas and backing. Companies that have little or no international influence to cloud their goals.

  • User profile image
    Ray7
  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    Ray7 said:

    Conclusion. Make your own damn toy, MS. If MS can't understand this important basic fundamental obvious fact, you will see "tech toy" market taken away by competitors. Not just freaking toys though, DOS/Window is nothing, I repeat, nothing without IBM. Talking BS about Windows business model without understanding how it was originally grow? Stupid analysist.

     

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
    Last modified
  • User profile image
    allenf

    reeb4ever said:

    I'm a large volume trader in the stock market. I recently bought MSFT and I am very, very disappointed. Not only in their market cap loss to AAPL, but in their overall performance.

     

    I am also very disappointed that they couldn't keep Robbie Bach and J. Allard.

    I am happy that there were no chairs thrown or death threats at their departure however. Perhaps some animals have been tamed at the company in the past 4 years.

     

    There has been other troubling news of the company:

     

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pequot-capital-settles-with-sec-for-28-million-2010-05-27-115400?dist=countdown

     

    It turns out that there were large hedge funds insider trading MSFT right after the .com bust. The same type of hedge funds that did the dutch Facebook investment with Microsoft corp for 2 parts of 250M each a year or so ago.

     

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT

     

    Sir William of Redmond is dumping MSFT at an alarming rate these days.

     

    I am considering dumping the MSFT share block to clean my hands when MSFT tops out at $30 in the next coming weeks or months(if not I will dump it at market prices in desperation after a few weeks wait). Dividends or not, it's not a good investment anymore.

     

    At $15 PPS last year MSFT was OK even though other tech companies more than quadrupiled in the same time frame such as Rackspace in comparison, but I think even Bill Gates knows that it's high time to fly.

     

    In economic terms, big money when it's fully invested like Microsoft is dead. You need growth, and MSFT has none. They are shrinking if anything.

     

    I had lunch with 3 Microsoft developers at Google I/0 2010. They didn't know who I was until lunch was over. I had an interesting conversation to say the least.

    Seriously....for all of the "troll" comments about my question, which should have been easy to answer I got SQL Server and Zune. (SQL Server yawn)

     

    Maybe I should have asked the question: Tell me 3 applications that your mother uses and has installed on top of on Windows?

     

    (They don't even have to be sold by Microsoft...and if I hear Visual Studio, Expression, or SQL Server I'll pull my hair out - Who's mother uses them?)

     

    I love developing in Visual Studio at Work...for boring corporate LOB apps (I do get a nice salary after all) but for the 90% of people out there Microsoft just isn't exciting or interesting and surely Microsoft fans boys (and girls) can come up with a better list.

     

    I can think of a few applications:

    1) Quicken (--> up until last year my mom and dad used Quicken but now are using www.mint.com)

    2) Carbonite Backup (-- backing up to the cloud all of there data....not much of an application per say...but just a way to get everything to the internet)

    3) TurboTax (--> haven't found a good online replacement yet...but I expect in 2-3 years even this will be online)

     

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