Coffeehouse Thread

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Android to overtake Windows in 4 years

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  • User profile image
    vesuvius

    This is the BBC video that makes the claim, is the enterprise about to move to Java? I think that even though Azure is important Scott Guthrie, Jason Zander, Mark Russinovitch et al need to return (quickly) if the apocalypse is to be avoided.

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    Ian2

    "One tech research firm is predicting ..."

    (I believe the correct expression is "Bollocks")

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    Jim Young

    @vesuvius:So an unnamed tech firm once again predicts the death of Windows. Yeah, right Perplexed

  • User profile image
    DeathBy​VisualStudio

    It won't be Android. It'll be the migration of desktop apps to the web that will diminish Windows from the dominance it has today. At least Microsoft has the back-end of that with Azure so if things go poorly for New Windows Everywhere they'll have that and a possible Office Everywhere to fall back on. That latter I hope we see more commitment from them on in the near future. IMO they need to let their app teams free from Windows so they can broaden the revenue base in case New Windows Everywhere goes the way of the Kin and Zune. I also think making uber Outlook.com, Office Web, and even Skydrive will help keep people in their ecosystem.

    I remember when you used to be able to justify doing a desktop app over a web app due to cost alone. It seems those days are long gone...

    If we all believed in unicorns and fairies the world would be a better place.
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    vesuvius

    @Ian2: Gartner Inc are pretty highly regarded

  • User profile image
    vesuvius

    @Jim Young: please see above

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    cbae

    It shouldn't be too difficult for a phone OS to overtake a PC OS in terms of install base. Phones are personal, but PCs and even tablets are usually shared within a household. The "P" in PC has always been a bit of a misnomer.

     

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    evildictait​or

    , vesuvius wrote

    ... is the enterprise about to move to Java? ...

    The enterprise never left Java.

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    Jim Young

    , vesuvius wrote

    @Jim Young: please see above

    Gartner is in the business of making tech industry predictions, many of them very wrong.

  • User profile image
    cbae

    , Jim Young wrote

    *snip*

    Gartner is in the business of making tech industry predictions, many of them very wrong.

    Actually, their primary business is in aggregating data and doing analysis on what IS or what WAS. Their analysis on what WILL BE probably do not constitute a service that they actually sell nor is it a service that is solicited by anybody nor is it one in which they've had a great track record.

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    cheong

    , cbae wrote

    It shouldn't be too difficult for a phone OS to overtake a PC OS in terms of install base. Phones are personal, but PCs and even tablets are usually shared within a household. The "P" in PC has always been a bit of a misnomer.

    Not agreed. Eveyone in my family have a desktop computer, and I have 2 more laptops. It's much more than the phones in my family (my mom don't own a mobile phone).

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    cheong

    @Jim Young: Btw, when symptoms related to extensive use of handhold device become more common, I suspect may of the people who become used to smartphone would still be forced to use desktop when they're not "on street" for their own health's sake.

    So I guess their prediction will be wrong again. As long as they're not able to reduce the weight of handhold/headholds to the weight of a credit card, these device cannot replace desktops completely.

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    Ray7

    So the BBC starts by talking about the Windows Desktop, and then to show how bad things are they introduce figures from an OS that has zero desktop presence? Not sure what one has to do with the other.

    Anyway, here's another prediction.

    In 2014, Gartner will predict that Android will overtake the WIndows desktop by 2015.

    In 2015, Gartner will predict that Android will overtake the Windows desktop by 2016.

    The problem with analysts is that they look at sales then draw a graph. That's fine, but if you just look at the numbers then you're missing a load of other factors that may throw the numbers out.

  • User profile image
    wastingtime​withforums

    , DeathBy​VisualStudio wrote

    It won't be Android. It'll be the migration of desktop apps to the web that will diminish Windows from the dominance it has today.

    If Microsoft continues playing games with Windows (the "start button" in 8.1 is not what most people expect) and shoving their core users in the backside, then Android could indeed take over.

    http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/hp_builds_its_first_android_all--one_pc2013

    "HP Builds Its First Android All-In-One PC Trading Windows for Jelly Bean"

    And:

    http://www.zdnet.com/android-invades-the-desktop-7000017286/

    "Microsoft has spent a lot of time and effort trying to get Windows onto smartphones and tablets — so far without a whole lot to show for it. Now several PC companies are trying the opposite approach, taking the Android operating system and porting it to PCs."

    The article reviews the recent releases from HP, Acer, Asus, and Samsung.

    Windows 8 (and to lesser extend: Surface) has a lot to do with the recent experimentation with Android by traditional PC makers.

    This is how the scenario could unfold: WINE receives major backing from HP, Samsung, Lenovo, Acer and Asus and reaches enough compatibility to run most Windows software and games on it without a hitch. WINE will be bundled with Android.

    As a further step, a skin for Android appears that emulates the Windows 7 (and XP) look, including the traditional start menu.

    That's it. This thing will be more Windows than Windows 9 (if Microsoft continues the metroization course). And for those who don't want forced clouds, it will be more attractive than Microsoft's metro cloud OS offerings.

    Android is surely not the classical Linux distro, there is a lot of momentum and professionalism behind it, so this scenario could happen this time. There is also no hostility to closed source and commercial software, and no ideology. And thanks to Windows 8 and Surface, the traditional PC makers are pissed and motivated enough to back such efforts.

    Android's library of native applications is far bigger WinRT's, and there are no sideloading restrictions and no forced appstores. Making the jump from WINEd Win32 applications to native easier. Android's approach is far more similar to the approach of classic desktop Windows, WinRT feels a lot more foreign than Android does. Even Android's current GUI is more AERO than Metro.

    Remember that IBM's more closed designs like MCA and PS2 didn't get widely adopted when all the PC clones appeared. Microsoft's current behavior has a lot in common with IBM before they have lost dominance: Introducing restrictions and closedness with their newer products, even though the dominance-gaining system at the moment is anything but (Android/PC AT clones), and arrogantly ignoring the wishes of their established users. But I must add that I am very cautious with this scenario. There is a lot of uncertainty, and Microsoft could easily thwart such efforts just by releasing a Windows that has the classical unharmed GUI in it. So it's in no way a "prediction" or something. But, if the current course continues, this scenario is a possibility in my opinion.

  • User profile image
    Ian2

  • User profile image
    ScanIAm

    @wastingtimewithforums:

    Just so I'm clear with the whargarble you are spraying:

          In the future, we'll all be running a windows emulator on Android machines...

  • User profile image
    ScottWelker

    wastingtime wrote: "If Microsoft continues..."

    Predictions will always get you in trouble but, I agree MS is alienating a non-trivial segment of its (once) loyal base. That may prove to be OK from their financial standpoint. It may not. Time will tell.

    I enjoyed your thoughts.

  • User profile image
    cbae

    , ScottWelker wrote

    *snip*

    Predictions will always get you in trouble but, I agree MS is alienating a non-trivial segment of its (once) loyal base. That may prove to be OK from their financial standpoint. It may not. Time will tell.

    I enjoyed your thoughts.

    It will largely depend on what "alienating" means. Visual Studio 2010 "alienated" me as somebody who wanted an MDI interface, but I still chose to use their product. Now, I don't really miss the ability to switch to MDI.

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