Coffeehouse Thread

17 posts

Forum Read Only

This forum has been made read only by the site admins. No new threads or comments can be added.

Next version of Xbox?

Back to Forum: Coffeehouse
  • User profile image
    Klaus Enevoldsen

    I'am pretty sure that the next version of Xbox is only 2-3 years away, but how bold will Microsoft be?

     

    Will it be without a DVD/Blu-ray drive? Download all content from Xbox Live?

    Will it be with 3D support?

    Will it have a SSD drive (no moving parts - besides cooling)

    Will it have USB 3 so that Kinect can use all the bandwidth that it needs for better quality of the cameras?

    Will Kinect be included in the launch setup?

    Will Kinect be HD?

    Will Kinect use a wide angle lens, so that you don't need a large free space to play (two people at a time)?

    Will Xbox V.Next rock?

     

    Speculation can begin now!

  • User profile image
    Ian2

    My guess is we might see a portable version of the XBOX next year, maybe from Nokia and in the guise of a super phone?

     

    Just speculating.

  • User profile image
    W3bbo

    I'am pretty sure that the next version of Xbox is only 2-3 years away, but how bold will Microsoft be?

     

    Will it be without a DVD/Blu-ray drive? Download all content from Xbox Live?

    Will it be with 3D support?

    Will it have a SSD drive (no moving parts - besides cooling)

    Will it have USB 3 so that Kinect can use all the bandwidth that it needs for better quality of the cameras?

    Will Kinect be included in the launch setup?

    Will Kinect be HD?

    Will Kinect use a wide angle lens, so that you don't need a large free space to play (two people at a time)?

    Will Xbox V.Next rock?

     

    Speculation can begin now!

    1. Without a doubt it will have a Bluray drive. Xbox games now come on multiple discs and Sony likes to sneak in jabs at DVDs. That said, I believe downloadable games will become an option: they have higher profit margins and allow gamers to get their games straight away (assuming it takes less time to download a 20GB game than it does to ship it in the post). It worked for Steam, and I note that the PSP moved on to disc-less games, so it's the next logical step.
    2. Possibly, but I reckon Microsoft realises that 3D is largely a gimmick. It doesn't cost anything to add (NVidia's drivers support it natively) but it has performance implications (as the same scene has to be rendered twice).
    3. SSD is too expensive to make this a cost-effective proposition, especially if downloadable games will take off, as you'd need at least a few hundred gigabytes worth of space, maybe even 1TB. For high capacities SSD is still too expensive. SSD's advantages come from random-access reading and writing, whereas mechanical drives are still good (if not the best) for stream reading/writing, which is how drives would be used in consoles.
    4. That depends on whether or not the Kinect itself supports USB3, or if there'll be a second revision that does support it (in which case there'd be a two-tier experience which is bad for the consumer). It's more likely they would re-release a "Kinect 2" for the next Xbox that would feature USB3 and a higher resolution camera.
    5. That's a given
    6. Upping the camera in the Kinect to a "HD" sensor with at least 1280x960 resolution is probable, but anything above 640x480 is ruined by crappy plastic camera lenses. We're unlikely to see high-quality glass in the Kinect and it isn't used for movie-making, so this isn't a priority. There isn't much to gain really, 640x480 is good-enough when your subject is only a few metres from the camera.
    7. Hard to say. That sounds like a good improvement.
    8. Define "rock". Given there's a duopoly in the 'serious' console market between Microsot and Sony it's a given that anything they make will sell in the millions and assuming they don't screw up will please the critics, but don't expect any kind of Apple-like revolutionary product. Microsoft isn't one to take risks.

    , Ian2 wrote

    My guess is we might see a portable version of the XBOX next year, maybe from Nokia and in the guise of a super phone?

     

    We saw that in 2004, it was called the NGage, and it sucked.

    Microsoft already has its own portable gaming console product: the Zune and WP7 devices. The ideal 'gaming phone' would feature physical buttons and a D-Pad, but if you were to design a phone like that it simply wouldn't work, and when you play games on a phone it's usually for a few minutes at the most.

     

  • User profile image
    Bas

    We saw that in 2004, it was called the NGage, and it sucked.

    Microsoft already has its own portable gaming console product: the Zune and WP7 devices. The ideal 'gaming phone' would feature physical buttons and a D-Pad, but if you were to design a phone like that it simply wouldn't work, and when you play games on a phone it's usually for a few minutes at the most.

     

     

    Sony says you're wrong.

  • User profile image
    dahat

    , Klaus Enevoldsen wrote

    I'am pretty sure that the next version of Xbox is only 2-3 years away, but how bold will Microsoft be?

     

    There was a thread on a similar topic last year, in which I said:

     

    While the costs of building such a player will no doubt drop between now and then... given the current investments that Microsoft is making in the existing 360 platform & ecosystem... I’d be flabbergasted if they were to be any eighth generation console in 2012, let alone from Microsoft... doubly so if the economy is still struggling (which it will be).
     
    2015 (*maybe* 2014) is the earliest I would expect to see Microsoft release something in the 8th generation.

     

    Mark my words, it's not going to be 2-3 years before we see an eighth generation console which bears the name of Xbox.

     

    1.Without a doubt it will have a Bluray drive.

     

    Also in that thread I said:

     

    Or for that matter... why do you think Microsoft hasn’t released a Blu-ray add-on for the 360 (similar to the HD-DVD add-on)?
     
    The answer (as far as I can determine) lies in the Sun v Microsoft settlement.

     

    As far as I know, Microsoft's agreement with Sun restricts them from using the Java trademark for their own software and releasing their own JVM under that name (which is why the J# was allowed).
     
    Microsoft could easily license Sun/Oracle's orginal Java VM as part of Blu-Ray.

     

    Again, you really need to look (or dig) into what you are claiming.

  • User profile image
    fabian

    Will it run Windows 9?

  • User profile image
    W3bbo

    , fabian wrote

    Will it run Windows 9?

     

    Interesting thought: with Windows 8 ported to ARM, and NT's portability (x86, x64, IA64, Alpha, PowerPC, MIPS in the past) it's possible that somewhere inside Microsoft they've got a version that runs natively on the Xbox 360 and presumably would not take too much effort to port over to whatever ISA the Xbox 3 uses.

     

    But there's nothing to gain from running a desktop OS on a console, that's what Windows CE is for.

  • User profile image
    dahat

    , W3bbo wrote

    But there's nothing to gain from running a desktop OS on a console, that's what Windows CE is for.

    You are giving me a head ache again.

    Really? Nothing to gain? Nothing at all?

    I guess the prospect of a common underlying OS offers nothing.

    No benefits from having a common set of kernel, libraries, apis, etc.

    Windows CE has historically been good for embedded devices... only developing (for) it (app or OS level) generally required two different, rather different code bases.

    Yes... there will always be differences between platforms (embedded vs desktop, server vs client, mobile vs web, etc)... the more commonalities you can have, the far easier the end to end development story is.

  • User profile image
    ScanIAm

    If they skip the media dvd/blue-ray drive altogether, it would be interesting to see them license the device for embedding directly in the TV.  As it stands I've got 1 and will be purchasing more solely for their ability to be media center extenders.  Console gaming is for noobs Smiley

  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    , Klaus Enevoldsen wrote

    I'am pretty sure that the next version of Xbox is only 2-3 years away, but how bold will Microsoft be?

     Will it be without a DVD/Blu-ray drive? Download all content from Xbox Live?

    Will it be with 3D support?

    Will it have a SSD drive (no moving parts - besides cooling)

    Will it have USB 3 so that Kinect can use all the bandwidth that it needs for better quality of the cameras?

    Will Kinect be included in the launch setup?

    Will Kinect be HD?

    Will Kinect use a wide angle lens, so that you don't need a large free space to play (two people at a time)?

    Will Xbox V.Next rock?

     

    Speculation can begin now!

    Will include BR and support the same XBL download service. You will not be able to download newest games, only games that are released for awhile. I am not MS, but, I am 99.8% sure of this.

    Xbox (ChessMasster) and Xbox360 (I forgot which game) supports 3D. Not sure if they want to do a generalized support on it.

    No SSD, too expensive. Will have internal Flash for OS, just like X360.

    USB3 most likely. It is cheap anyway (I assume it is cheap).

    Will have bundle, but, not a standard. I am also 99.8% sure of this. If they want to mandatory it, they might as well throw away controllers.

    Kinnect be HD? Not sure what you are asking when Kinnect games are HD. As for the camera itself, it is pointless going into HD. Kinnect already can track eye brows, so, IMO, it is already HD enough.

    Hummm..... wide angle? Don't know. There are only few decent camera like Lumix has "REAL" 25mm wide angle. Wide angle is not that easy I assume. Most wide angle out there is fake by cuting the top and bottom down.

    Speculation for now is too early. But, rest assure, it is DX11 or higher, meaning tesselation will be a key.

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
    Last modified
  • User profile image
    wkempf

    @Bas: Yep. I *really* want a WP7 device with a slideout gamepad like on the Xperia Play. XBox Live games on a WP7 would be so much better if we had a gamepad to use.

  • User profile image
    contextfree`

    Microsoft already has its own portable gaming console product: the Zune and WP7 devices. The ideal 'gaming phone' would feature physical buttons and a D-Pad, but if you were to design a phone like that it simply wouldn't work, and when you play games on a phone it's usually for a few minutes at the most.

     

    Doesn't have to actually be a phone to run WP7 apps, games and applets.

  • User profile image
    W3bbo

    , dahat wrote

    *snip*

    You are giving me a head ache again.

    Really? Nothing to gain? Nothing at all?

    I guess the prospect of a common underlying OS offers nothing.

    No benefits from having a common set of kernel, libraries, apis, etc.

    Windows CE has historically been good for embedded devices... only developing (for) it (app or OS level) generally required two different, rather different code bases.

    Yes... there will always be differences between platforms (embedded vs desktop, server vs client, mobile vs web, etc)... the more commonalities you can have, the far easier the end to end development story is.

     

    I say "desktop OS" implying it'd be the same as a regular Windows installation (i.e. requiring mouse/keyboard for effective use, and a high-resolution display where the user sits about a foot from the screen). Of course that wouldn't work on a console.

     

    Now, using desktop Windows as the basis of a new console OS (done properly) might work. That's what the vapourware Phantom console tried to do, and to an extent the original Xbox (since it exposed the DirectX APIs).

     

    The thing is, the heart of the Windows OS: the NT kernel, isn't overly suited to gaming console tasks. You don't need a multi-user, multi-tasking kernel in a console. Almost eEverything that sits on top of ntoskrnl is the graphical UI that, too, doesn't make sense for a games console, like the DWM, or the WIMP UI.

     

    Fun little fact: games on the Xbox run in kernel mode.

  • User profile image
    dahat

    @W3bbo:

    Now you are making the headache worse... partially through continuing not to think, but also trying to cover your rear while making it even more obvious.

     

    We've seen a demonstrated effort in the Windows world to better modularize it for many years.

     

    Back in the XP days, when a new SKU was required it practically took an act of god to make everything work... for Vista (and since) a great deal of work was done to make that process better, now things have gotten so easier to the point that now you can practically define and spit out a new SKU in a matter of hours... granted there is still a sizable bit of testing required to verify that things work the way you expect.

     

    You see the signs of this all around... all of the versions of Client being on a single DVD, all of the versions of Server being on another. Core Installations of Windows Server, not to mention MinWin.

     

    All built around the idea of being able to build a custom tailored build of Windows for different applications.

     

    With the ARM announcement at CES... the importance of what has happened previously should be quite obvious.

     

    Sure... you could go and install what you call the "desktop OS" on a game console, server, set top box, or phone... obviously that wouldn't make much sense as all tend to require different user interfaces... as evidenced by the fact that they do today. But why would you think for a moment that anyone would seriously want to have the same taskbar you have on your laptop on your phone or game console? More likely you simply misunderstood the scope of what fabian was thinking/suggesting.

     

    Is it so hard to conceive of a future where a future version of the Xbox runs the same underlying kernel and libraries as a full x64 Windows laptop, or an ARM based tablet? Perhaps each running a different shell of some kind or with enough customizations that only UI based code need be changed when moving from platform to platform?

     

    <shaking head>

     

    Note that the reason I said "trying to cover your rear" above... is your excuse that the desktop OS requires a keyboard and mouse for effective use... which would seem to imply CE does not.

     

    Guess what, no matter what input system or OS you use, there will be work!

     

    Given most of us don't have touch panel TV's, be it CE, Windows 7 Ultimate, or Linux that were to be installed on a 360, you'd still need to write a driver or two to make a Kinect or 360 controller provide any kind of input to the UI... let alone do something meaningful with it.

  • User profile image
    Klaus Enevoldsen

    Kinnect be HD? Not sure what you are asking when Kinnect games are HD. As for the camera itself, it is pointless going into HD. Kinnect already can track eye brows, so, IMO, it is already HD enough.

     

    The Kinect camera uses only one fourth of it's resolution and it is a very poor resolution if you ever tried VideoKinect. The resolution is reduced to make sure that the USB bandwidth is not used up completely by Kinnect. By using USB3 it should be possible to have a HD camera and still have enough bandwidth for other devices. But a higher resolution also requires more processing power for the body tracking. So it is a trade-off.

  • User profile image
    Proton2

    If you have ever seen those examples where a low resolution video is run through some software to increase the resolution, for example to enhance the details from a crime scene such as a liscence plate, you will see that temporal information can be used to increase the "HD-ness" of the Kinect camera instead of spatial information (higher resolution).

  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    @Klaus Enevoldsen:

    Well, motion sensing is HD since it tracks eye brows, for my standard. As for video conferencing, since there is no need for depth, just video conferencing, you can turn off depth sensor and give 2D camera more bandwidth.

     

    I understand what you mean, but, it is not a must. USB3 will be used for sure. And when that happens, certainly you can use both 2D and depth in full resolution.

     

    But, changing the kinect hardware itself would be a major problem for marketing and user "trust". Without clear demand on HD version of kinect, people would not want to replace the old one, but, will be angry that they HAVE to upgrade when you put that out in the market. Even if it is optional, they still feel obligated to get the new one. You don't want them to think what they bought is junk in 2 years, unless you are Apple.

     

    But, just to make you feel better. I do believe they will release a new kinect two/three years after Xbox Next. The bottleneck would be expect and they would want to refresh their hardware. And that also don't require customer's money all at once at console launch.

     

    In short, USB3 for sure since it is cheap. Kinect HD is expected to be later as Xbox Next Refresh. Just my speculation. I could be wrong. I don't work for MS.

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
    Last modified

Conversation locked

This conversation has been locked by the site admins. No new comments can be made.