Coffeehouse Thread

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Win8 @ 6-months == 100 million licenses

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  • User profile image
    elmer

    Someone must have re-written the sales reporting macro - I thought it was hard-coded to report 20 million / month.

    This is apparently down on expectations, but not quite the unmitigated disaster that had been claimed.

    Of course, sales to OEMs doesn't tell you about end-user purchases, or how (if) they are being used or downgraded, but that's a separate issue.

  • User profile image
    Bas

    , elmer wrote

    Of course, sales to OEMs doesn't tell you about end-user purchases

    Don't they? OEMs aren't just rolling a bunch of dice and then buying whatever number comes out of that times a million.

  • User profile image
    contextfree`

    More interesting to me is that they will apparently be officially unveiling Blue to some extent over the next couple of weeks, before Build.

  • User profile image
    elmer

    , Bas wrote

    *snip*

    Don't they? OEMs aren't just rolling a bunch of dice and then buying whatever number comes out of that times a million.

    No, this simple figure doesn't tell you who is buying - consumer, business - or what they are being used for - tablets, laptops, desktops.

  • User profile image
    Bas

    It gives you an estimate of how many are being bought by end-users though. Especially if you compare them to OEM purchases of previous versions and their end-user adoption.

  • User profile image
    GoddersUK

    , Bas wrote

    *snip*

    Don't they? OEMs aren't just rolling a bunch of dice and then buying whatever number comes out of that times a million.

    They must be pretty epic dice if they can roll 100... Tongue Out

  • User profile image
    elmer
  • User profile image
    Bas

    , GoddersUK wrote

    *snip*

    They must be pretty epic dice if they can roll 100... Tongue Out

    They could have five 20 sided dice. Tongue Out

  • User profile image
    Dr Herbie
  • User profile image
    ScanIAm

    I haven't played D&D for decades and I want that...

  • User profile image
    cbae

    Don't you have get at least two if they're going to call this product "dice"? Wink

  • User profile image
    wkempf

    @cbae: Yes, and any D&D player would tell you it's two 10-sided dice.

    , elmer wrote

    Of course, sales to OEMs doesn't tell you about end-user purchases, or how (if) they are being used or downgraded, but that's a separate issue.

    This argument always annoys the crap out of me. It's made every single time, which is why it's pointless. We know how many people use the previous versions, and their numbers were calculated the same way, so it doesn't matter in any way how many are sold to OEMs or end users.

    In any case, the numbers may not be as high as some would like, but even though they'll try, the naysayers can't really claim this proves them right. Windows 8 is certainly successful by some measure, and can't in any way be claimed to be a "total failure". That's not to say there isn't still lots of room for improvement and a very steep uphill battle for Microsoft to overcome still. As Paul Thurrott said, this is a very nuanced topic that can (and should be) read in a number of ways, and we won't know the real picture for some time to come (possibly years).

  • User profile image
    wastingtime​withforums

    , wkempf wrote

    @cbae: Yes, and any D&D player would tell you it's two 10-sided dice.

    *snip*

    This argument always annoys the crap out of me. It's made every single time, which is why it's pointless. We know how many people use the previous versions, and their numbers were calculated the same way, so it doesn't matter in any way how many are sold to OEMs or end users.

    It does.

    http://www.zdnet.com/windows-8-hits-100m-milestone-but-usage-remains-low-wheres-the-disconnect-7000014964/

    ------

    here's on-the-surface evidence to suggest that Windows 8 shipments — not sales — are going as well as Microsoft had hoped.

    Windows 8's usage share shows how much the operating system is being used, based on metrics generated by analytics firms. It gives a good overall — albeit rough around the edges — indication of how many users of Windows 8 there are in a percentage.

    Recent statistics from Net Applications show that Windows 8 has a usage share of just 3.8 percent in the six months that it has been available on store shelves. (Actually, it's been around longer, with developer and release previews.) Meanwhile, Windows 7 was given a head start just as its successor was by way of early pre-release versions. This added to Windows 7's overall boost in initial general availability usage share.

    During the six months that the final Windows 7 was available to the public, it had about a 12 percent usage share. Windows 8, during the same period, has less than one third of Windows 7's share.

    .....

    It seems that according to a high Windows 8 sell rate to a lower usage share ratio, something's getting stuck at the retailer or OEM level. This could be a result of the ongoing decline in the PC market.

    Forrester Research's David Johnson told ZDNet on the phone: "Our data on Windows 8 adoption shows about half the interest in the enterprise than we saw with Windows 7. It's been clear that consumers are confused by Windows 8. I would be very surprised if the consumer adoption of Windows 8 was on par with that of Windows 7 at this point."

    One likely reason is that the man in the middle — such as the retailer or the OEM — simply isn't shifting their stock of inventory. Windows 8 remains on store shelves, and PCs that are pre-loaded with the operating system aren't being shipped to end users.

    It wouldn't be a surprise, considering the state of the PC market as of late. According to recent IDC figures, global PC shipments plunged by 14 percent during the first quarter of 2013. Based on the numbers, it's the steepest decline since 1994.

    --------

    All the stats by the counters for Windows 8 are terrible, the retailers are pretty much all screaming, claiming they had the steepest decline of PC sales since.. ever, yet Microsoft claims sales are almost on par with Windows 7.

    Doesn't compute! Everyone is lying except MS? Sure buddy.

    The explanations in the quoted article make much more sense.

  • User profile image
    wkempf

    , wastingtime​withforums wrote

    Doesn't compute! Everyone is lying except MS? Sure buddy.

    The explanations in the quoted article make much more sense.

    Nah, the only ones lying are the pundits, fanbois and haters, such as yourself.

    Please apply some analytical thought and reread what I said, because nothing you just ranted on about is relevant to anything I actually said.

  • User profile image
    wastingtime​withforums

    , wkempf wrote

    *snip*

    Nah, the only ones lying are the pundits, fanbois and haters, such as yourself.

    Please apply some analytical thought and reread what I said, because nothing you just ranted on about is relevant to anything I actually said.

    And what have you said?

    "We know how many people use the previous versions, and their numbers were calculated the same way"

    Yes, but that MS calculations were ALSO BACKED UP BY EVERYONE ELSE! The PC retail sector didn't scream bloody murder and all the OS stats jived with Microsoft's license calculations. Not this time.

    , wkempf wrote

    Nah, the only ones lying are the pundits, fanbois and haters, such as yourself.

    So everyone except Microsoft.

    Are the PC retailers, statistic firms and journalists in the pundits, fanbois or haters category?

    "Fanboi" coming from you is rich.

  • User profile image
    kettch

    @wastingtimewithforums: You are as much of a fanboi as anybody else.

  • User profile image
    wastingtime​withforums

    , kettch wrote

    @wastingtimewithforums: You are as much of a fanboi as anybody else.

    fanboi of what?

  • User profile image
    wkempf

    , wastingtime​withforums wrote

    *snip*

    And what have you said?

    "We know how many people use the previous versions, and their numbers were calculated the same way"

    Yes, but that MS calculations were ALSO BACKED UP BY EVERYONE ELSE! The PC retail sector didn't scream bloody murder and the OS stats jived with Microsoft's license calculations. Not this time.

    *snip*

    So everyone except Microsoft.

    "Fanboi"-insult coming from you is rich.

    What I said was the numbers were nuanced, and they are. They aren't as high as Microsoft wanted, but they also aren't low enough to prove failure. You keep screaming failure, but the numbers (even the ones you try to use to prove your point) don't bear that out. It's not a clear success, but it's also far (far) from a failure.

    If you think I used "fanboi" to insult you, boy are you deluded Wink. In any case, I'm not a fanbois. If I were, I'd be screaming about how great things are, which I've never done. If you think I have, it says more about your own biases than it does about mine.

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