Coffeehouse Thread

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Windows 8's uptake falls behind Vista's pace

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  • User profile image
    elmer

    According to Computerworld:

    http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9235059/Windows_8_s_uptake_falls_behind_Vista_s_pace

    While I've always been leery of conclusions made from fuzzy internet-gathered stats, it must nevertheless be of some concern to MS.

  • User profile image
    DCMonkey

    Yeah, since those stats are based on usage, I'd like to see the post Christmas numbers (when people actually start using their gifts) before making any conclusions.

    But I won't be a party to the stat. My only Christmas computer purchase was a Windows 7 laptop for my dad.

    The white shirt at Fry's said they were a popular item.

  • User profile image
    wkempf

    Microsoft wouldn't be concerned about numbers from this source. They know the real figures, and will be concerned or not concerned based on those. The rest of us, though, might be concerned by figures like this.

  • User profile image
    Bass

    @wkempf:

    I'm not concerned.

  • User profile image
    dentaku

    @elmer:It's too bad a perfectly good modern OS has been messed up so bad with an interface that's just not appropriate for mouse and trackpad users (but fine with a tablet).
    I wish we could find out who is responsible for this. It just seems like such a stubborn move to not give us the option to switch the UI to something more like Win7 if we're not using a touchscreen.

    The people who keep saying that it's just that users are afraid of new things must be living in the same reality distortion field as the Windows Division.

    This is different than Vista because Vista was perfectly usable to anyone wno knows how to use Windows but had some technical problems that needed to be fixed.
    The techy "behind the scenes" things that the average user has no clue about in Win8 seem solid and just as good as Win7, it's just the usability problems that are aggravating.

    The sales people at Staples just can't bring themselves to display anything running Win8 or recomend one to people. That's a BIG problem.

  • User profile image
    evildictait​or

    These numbers have a habit of being misleading. To properly understand the numbers you need to think about:

    1. Is there a seasonal aspect to computer sales? Vista and 8 were not released in the same month.

    2. Is there an overall trend away from buying new laptops? We are in a recession, after all.

    3. Are there any seasonal glitches to look out for? For example, is it possible that somebody buying a machine on Dec 1st might not power it on until Dec 25th for example, and thus the number might not register on the website?

    4. Are the users of the website themselves a bad sample? For example, if you did the analysis on Slashdot I'm sure you'd find that a huge proportion of everyone everywhere are definitely using Linux.

    5. Has the number of computers on the web changed since Vista's launch (for example, is the number of people using a browser on a phone/tablet different now to in 2006?) 2.2% of 1000 is 22, but 1.2% of a million is 12000.

    6. Has the number of people visiting their website, or the demographic of their sample changed? Is it still (or rather, was it ever) an unbiased sample of the population? - for example, are business users using IE6 to browse IBM documentation and NASDAQ tickers but who don't waste time reading tech enthusiast blogs blog as equally represented as tech enthusiasts who might browse blogs all day on their iPad, iPhone and Macbook?

     

    A better comparison would be to compare Windows 8 sales as a proportion of total Windows sales compared with Vista sales over the same period and to compare what percentage of desktop/laptop PCs are still distributed with Windows.

    Sadly I suspect getting better quality numbers would be harder, require a better understanding of basic statistics and would probably also make for a less sensationalist headline.

  • User profile image
    wastingtime​withforums

    , wkempf wrote

    Microsoft wouldn't be concerned about numbers from this source

    Yet they have no problems using the same statistics (NetApplications) when it suits them.

    http://blogs.windows.com/ie/b/ie/archive/2012/03/18/understanding-browser-usage-share-data.aspx

    The complete December stats include post Christmas. W8 is doing worse in the hyper-commercial October-December release timeframe than Vista did in the calm January-March timeframe.

    Has the number of computers on the web changed since Vista's launch (for example, is the number of people using a browser on a phone/tablet different now to in 2006?) 2.2% of 1000 is 22, but 1.2% of a million is 12000.

    W8 was released in October 26 while Vista was released for the general customers in January 30 2007. Well after the black friday and Christmas seasons, and it was also far more expensive than Windows 8. W8 had also substantially more marketing. If it would have been any good, it should have rocked the sales with all this variables going for it. Yet it's doing just terrible. Far worse than Vista. The "lots of PCs" argument should have even out with these variables, yet this didn't happen.

    There were also far more PCs on W7's release compared to Vista's, yet Win7 was able to overtake Vista's pace with ease within the first weeks.

    Maybe it's because W8 itself is the problem, huh? It's great how everyone is at fault except the guy with the bloody fingers beside the corpse.

    Stats are bad because this:

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    Is thrown out of the windows with that:

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    Stupid. Just mind boggingly stupid. No one can score with products like these. How do you even make a competetive product based on the W8 design principles? You're pretty much forced to slap touch on products that are absolutely not suited for it (except as a gimmick use for a few minutes per month). It's like using a remote control as toothbrush: Nice party gag, but no one would be mad enough to sell remote controls as toothbrushes in stores. Yet MS is exactly demanding this from their OEMs and the UI is optimized for that.

  • User profile image
    evildictait​or

    , wastingtime​withforums wrote

    *snip*

    Yet they have no problems using the same statistics (NetApplications) when it suits them.

    Actually that post is more about the IE team complaining that there's a bias towards Google Chrome in lots of online "browser" statistics because Google Chrome does additional spurrious connections.

    Microsoft aren't endorsing NetApplications in that post. Merely commenting that NetApplications has had to adjust their statistics to stop over-reporting Google Chrome's usage in the market-place.

  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    In the good side, I read a recent report saying Windows market share increases while Mac OS and Linux both drops. No link because I don't keep track of every news I read.

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
    Last modified
  • User profile image
    elmer

    @evildictaitor: Yes, as I said, these internet-based numbers are always fuzzy at best, and so you'd be a fool to make any solid conclusions based on them, but they can give some indications regarding patterns, when comparing (assuming the data is comparable) against previous data.

    I am certainly not going to call it yet, based on these numbers, but claims based on sales figures are also going to be misleading (sales to who/where? and that entire downgrade of new purchase issue) so usage figures are possibly more meaningful, provided you can gather stats that are trustworthy and actually reflective of the market.

    FWIW, here is their explanation on methodology - http://www.netmarketshare.com/faq.aspx 

  • User profile image
    magicalclick

    Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised it is not as good as Vista. The OS is messy. There are 7 different ways to backup and they are all over the places, some are even hidden by default. it is the same back in the Vista days, in regards to confusion. Outlook Express vs Live Mail, Movie Maker vs Live Movie Maker, WMP Photo vs Live Photo Gallery. In win8, we have Skypes, Mail, Media Player Player, IE in both desktop and metro. It is not matter of choice when we are in the uncertainty which is going to be deprecated. Not to mention the metro counterpart is often less useful due to full screen and extra slowness. it took MS a long time to clean up the duplication mess and finally have OEM bundle windows live essential to have the appropriate experience. And finally Win7 removed all the duplication to finally end the duplication mess. it will take MS much longer to clean win8 up because there are even more redundancy and it also takes a long time to mature those rushed metro apps.

    Leaving WM on 5/2018 if no apps, no dedicated billboards where I drive, no Store name.
    Last modified
  • User profile image
    Lizard​Rumsfeld

     And finally Win7 removed all the duplication to finally end the duplication mess. it will take MS much longer to clean win8 up because there are even more redundancy and it also takes a long time to mature those rushed metro apps.

    Yeah, that's what really gets me - Win7 was MS's best effort to create a polished OS, so many legacy items were updated or just removed, it was MS's "cleanest" OS to date IMO and their best effort to have the OS at least appear like it was designed by a single team.

    And then with Win8, they take a huge step backwards in this respect.  Metro control panels to control desktop functions, bizarre flat-but-with-3d-icons desktop theme, backup systems all over the place (I mean, thanks for keeping image backup - but then sticking it in another app called "Windows 7 File Recovery" - huh?), search that doesn't search mail from desktop apps and is full-screen only, major functions spread out over hot corners, etc.  It's just like a complete 180 from how Win7 appeared to be put together in terms of fit and finish.

    I don't see how they can possibly fix all the elements by "Blue" if it's to come late this year, or even if they plan to.  Hope I'm proven wrong.  The move to yearly (or near-yearly) updates is promising, but that depends on the severity of changes, pricing, update mechanisms, etc.

     

  • User profile image
    MasterPi

    , NitzWalsh wrote

    I don't see how they can possibly fix all the elements by "Blue" if it's to come late this year, or even if they plan to.  Hope I'm proven wrong.  The move to yearly (or near-yearly) updates is promising, but that depends on the severity of changes, pricing, update mechanisms, etc.

    Well, you're assuming that they weren't already working on fixing these things post-RTM. Blue seems to be more of a UI update as the rumors suggest things like 3 start screen tile sizes (ala WP), opaque taskbar, and a "flatter explorer." Don't see why this update can't include icon fixes, though I wouldn't bet on all icons being updated at once.

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