Yes and yes, Tim. All businesses change from state A to state B by way of a transition that weighs the downside risk against the upside gains. Your dimmer analogy is right on.
The stress these days on the development supply side is the loss of market supply at scale for on-premise. To parallel the electricity analogy, the cost of backup generators today is way more expensive than if everyone had a generator for primary power. The same holds true for the physical on-premise IT parts.
Developers have to follow the dimmer and move their finely tuned code base from state A to state B just as carefully (change, retune, change, retune, change, retune,...).